RUNNING A BIT HOT...
Here we are, officially in winter and 1 day from Christmas, and what do I see? Not visions of sugar plums dancing in my head, but a thermometer hurtling towards the 40s and 50s. The improbable warmth will take a few days to reach its zenith, but we're out of the gate and in the wink of an eye a merry brand of late December weather will be under the tree. A gift we can all appreciate.
This image, taken this past Sunday when the sun was out in full force, shows the southern extent of the snow cover on the ground from NE Iowa into northern Illinois. Note the river valleys carved into the image. It dwindled Monday, with highs in the snow belt reaching the upper 30s to low 40s. Without the cooling effects of the snow pack, readings further south hit the mid 40s in the Quad Cities to 50 in Keokuk.
Today, the addition of more clouds and low level moisture will set readings back a few degrees, with highs around 34 where a thin layer of snow exists, to 42 in the far south. The morning hours could see some patchy fog or drizzle, especially north.
Christmas day looks dreary but uneventful. Low clouds will be plentiful, but it appears any forcing for rain remains to our southeast. That said, there could be some brief pockets of drizzle and patchy fog. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Thursday, with a rather stout inversion in place, low level moisture continues to increase with an upper air disturbance lifting into the Midwest. Clouds will again be quite thick but with somewhat better forcing, some light showers or drizzle appears more likely. Fog could also be more widespread and heavier in spots, with highs inching into the upper 40s to low 50s.
Friday, the region remains in a stagnant pattern conducive to low clouds thanks to abundant low level moisture. Shower chances appear to be confined to the morning hours. Fortunately, despite all the clouds, warm air advection increases allowing temperatures to continue rising with highs potentially into the low 50s south. The remainder of the central and north hold in the mid to upper 40s, still well above normal.
Friday night and Saturday, the mean trough amplifies a bit over the Midwest, allowing for better rain chances with available water vapor of at least 8/10ths of an inch. With a more organized surface low, the GFS is significantly heavier on rain totals, showing some amounts up to an inch.
The EURO is significantly less developed and lighter, with most amounts well under 1/2 inch. I suspect the EURO is closer to reality.
Even with the abundance of rain and clouds, the GFS remains adamant that most areas push into the 50s Saturday.
That along with dew points of 47/51 will give the air a mild, moist, almost springlike feel. At this point, high temperatures will be 22-25 degrees above normal.
Sunday, a front eases into the region, allowing a cooling trend to develop that should have some staying power to begin January. This is well teleconnected, with the MJO exiting the warmth of phase 6 and entering the cold associated with phase 8 in early January.
Additionally, the EURO is showing a nice looking trough over the west January 7th, with cold air in place over the Midwest.
Cyclogenesis is indicated in the Texas panhandle, with a generous swath of snow already entering the western Midwest. That is a pattern that I very much like to see for snow in the central Midwest. We'll keep an eye on developments in coming days.
Meantime, Mr C. is finalizing flight plans, fattening the reindeer, and checking that special list of his. Here's hoping you have all been good little boys and girls the past year. Have a holly jolly day and roll weather....TS.
