REFRESHING...

A seasonally strong cold front zipped southeast overnight, producing scattered showers and a pattern change that will keep temperatures below normal much of next week. In fact, highs are not expected to reach 80 again for at least the next 6 days, taking us out to June 11th. Here's what the EURO shows for temperatures in the Quad Cities through June 13th

The GFS is even cooler, with a couple of days in the 60s.

The reason for the cool conditions is a buckled jet, (resulting in an amplified NW flow). That delivers air masses originating out of Canada. The height contours show the path air masses are following.

Fortunately, we are at a time of year when the sun is strong and air masses are far warmer than they would be in January. We get out of it with highs in the 60s and 70s, which is still 8–10 degrees below normal. You can see the temperature departures the trough carves out for the period June 6-11th.

Here's a closer perspective of specific 5 day departures ending June 11th.

Aside from cool conditions, the other issue with a pattern like this is that cyclonic flow drives small ripples SE that can cause scattered showers and at least a couple of days of rather breezy conditions. With last night's showers gone by daybreak, the next chance would be later Thursday afternoon across the far northeast. These are looking very much hit-and-miss and on the light side. Most areas will not see them. Highs will range from 68 in the far NW to 74 in the SW. Skies will start sunny, but cumulus clouds will build by early afternoon, especially in the north.

Friday should be a dry, quiet day as we await the next round of energy Saturday. If nothing else, a few showers and an abundance of clouds are expected as it passes through, as the EURO indicates. If you buy the GFS, the rains, while still light, are shown with greater coverage. Sunday now looks dry on both the EURO and GFS. Here's what models are indicating for rainfall Thursday-Saturday night. You will notice the GFS shows more in the way of coverage, but still has only light amounts. I currently prefer the EURO solution.

The EURO

The GFS

Highs Friday-Sunday should mainly be in the range of 70-75 from north to south. Refreshing to say the least!

GOING THE OTHER WAY

Going the other direction? Yes, it appears that after the deep east coast tough fills and lifts northeast next week, the pattern reverses with a ridge developing over the central U.S. The developing set-up seems to be a common theme of both the EURO and GFS. Here's what the GFS shows at 500mb Friday, June 21st, the first full day of astronomical summer.

Assuming this evolves the way it's shown, it opens the door for some real summer heat and humidity. Somewhere on the northern edge of the heat dome, a "ring of fire" structure is likely to exist where active thunderstorms and MCS clusters reside. The exact position is impossible to determine at this time and distance, but it may be close by.

On a positive note, for at least the next 10, maybe 14 days, rainfall is likely to be below normal. The GFS shows these departures over the next 2 weeks.

The EURO is a bit wetter but still has the general idea.

So there you have it. Down then up again as summer approaches....right on cue. Have a lovely day and roll weather...TS.