RAIN IN THE BUCKET, YES FOR MANY...
Sometimes one needs to be careful what they wish for. Just a week ago a serious drought gripped the upper Midwest with extreme to exceptional drought extending through SE Minnesota, SW Wisconsin and NE Iowa.
Rainfall deficits up to 14 inches since May 1st were noted in NE Iowa September 20th. Widespread deficits of 9-12 inches were noted in eastern Iowa W/NW of the Quad Cities.
The call went out for rain and this time around, somebody answered, especially across the northern third of my area where 1-2 inch totals were fairly common. Some areas near and north of HWY 20 had significantly more. For example in Jo Daviess, County of NW Illinois, near Stockton more than 5 inches of rain was measured with 3.25 reported in Elizabeth. Even the Quad City airport in Moline picked up an inch of welcome precipitation. Unfortunately, the rains were spotty further south, especially SW of the Quad Cities where little if any rain fell.
The rainfall estimate below shows widespread 3-7 inch rain totals over the past week further north over the extreme to exceptional drought areas of NE Iowa, into southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. That was massively needed and appreciated there!
In fact, the Mississippi is expected to rise a couple of feet in Dubuque due to the recent rainfall. For most of the past 2 months the river there has been running near the 4 foot level. Similar rises are expected downstream in coming days.
The closed upper air energy that is driving the wet weather over the north is only slowly advancing to the southeast. You can see the center of circulation near Ames, Iowa on the satellite late Tuesday. The best forcing, heavier rains, and coverage are off to the east and north of the center.
With the circulation passing just south of the Quad Cities into EC Illinois Wednesday, there will be enough instability to generate some additional showers and a few storms, especially in the afternoon. However, most of the heavier cells are expected east of the Mississippi and even there amounts should generally scattered in nature and generally under 1/4 inch. The NE half will be most susceptible to the showers with the track across the south. Like Tuesday, there will be lots of dry hours even where rain falls. Additionally, with passing clouds and SE winds highs will be held to the lower 70s in most areas both Wednesday and Thursday. Here's what models are suggesting for additional rain totals through Wednesday night. Some of this falls Tuesday night.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
By Friday the disturbance opens up and moves east. That allows sunshine and the return of southerly flow and a building ridge. After highs in the mid to upper 70s Friday, well above normal readings are established over the weekend into much of next week. The EURO meteogram shows a 6 day run of highs in the 80s Saturday through Thursday of next week. A pretty impressive start to October!
After the rain departs Wednesday, the EURO shows nothing of consequence in terms of precipitation for about a week. Warm and dry looks to be the name of the game! Roll weather....TS
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