PUT THAT IN A CAN...
BUSTING RECORDS
It might have been windy, but aside from that, Friday was sensational. There's nothing like an 80 degree day in March to motivate me. I washed the car, raked the yard, and cleaned the garage. I even managed a farmer tan on my neck and arms. Furthermore, I followed that up with pork chops on the grill. A very productive day. Wish I could put it in a can and open it when I needed it.
As you can see, many cities around the Midwest hit or exceeded 80. The high of 82 in Cedar Rapids was a new record, beating the old mark of 81 set in 1968. Dubuque with an 80 also broke its previous record of 78 set way back in 1910. Sioux City hit 89 and a 90 was reported in Sioux County, located in the northwest tip of Iowa.
The 82 in Cedar Rapids was the second 80 of the year, the first occurring back on the 14th. On average (going back to 1954), Cedar Rapids does not see its first 80 degree high until April 19th. The graphic below shows that only 3 March days have been below normal. Spring has sprung. However, holding on to that reality is always an issue with the ups and downs our fickle climate has to offer during the coming month of April.
Friday's surge of warmth was the result of another strong and blustery storm, something we've seen plenty of this year. Saturday, the bulk of my area, remains far enough removed from the main forcing to generally see another dry day. However, with a front slowly sinking south, it will pool enough moisture ahead of it to create more clouds than what we experienced Friday. There's a very slight chance of shower but with 850 temps as high as +11C, conditions look capped despite some small CAPE.
If the EURO is right, the area remains in the warm sector all day Saturday. The exception might be up north, where the front could creep in late in the day near HWY 20, shifting winds to the east and providing some local cooling there. At 5:00pm. the EURO shows this for temperatures. While mild, some cooling occurs compared to Friday due to the addition of cloud cover. You can see some chilly air lurking just to our north. We will eventually get a taste of that Sunday.
Saturday night, some showers and storms could make their way into the region as low pressure tracks along the front that is laid out across my northern counties. Here's the surface depiction on the EURO late Saturday night. Chances look greatest in the north, near the front and close to the track of the triple point. A big negative for precipitation from the primary energy is that the low, (as often seems to be the case) come right up over eastern Iowa. That sends the dry slot right up the spine of the Mississippi. That, and the fact the cold front comes through late Sunday morning means there is little instability for it to work with and most of Sunday's storms and inclement weather are further east. Note the split in precipitation, with a major band NW and another off to the southeast. That is the dry slot.
So while there may be scattered showers and storms around Sunday morning preceding the cold front, they should be brief and light. Also, the main severe threat should be further east in Illinois later in the day. So while things get off to a mild start ahead of the front, it will make itself known as it marches through eastern Iowa late morning and across western Illinois by 2:00 in the afternoon. Winds will swing to the NW and temperatures will tank. Here's a sequential progression of Sunday's temperatures.
Noon, not bad.
7:00pm in the evening. Going down!
7:00am Monday morning, very ugly...we have gone from the 80s to the low to mid 30s.
If you include these wind chills Monday morning, it will feel 60 degrees colder in places like Cedar Rapids and Dubuque, where records in the 80s were established Friday. Ah, spring!
One other issue to watch is that the EURO tries to spin some wrap around snow into the north later Sunday night into early Monday. There could be just enough to track a cat up around HWY 20. Nothing that should cause any concerns other than the sight of it. Here's what the EURO shows for amounts.
The GFS is substantially further north, keeping any measurable snow confined to far northern Iowa.
That leads us to a chilly start next week, with highs in the 40s north to near 50 south Monday and Tuesday. By next Wednesday, another energetic system is on top of us, looking like this at 500mb.
Tuesday night showers and storms have erupted ahead of a 979mb low in NW Iowa. That should get us into the warm sector for a time Wednesday, allowing highs to pop into the 60s.
This system, despite its strength, may again track in a path that brings the dry slot into play. While other parts of the Midwest get soaked between this and the weekend storm, my area may come in substantially lower on rain totals than what's found around us. You can see that in the rain amounts the EURO and GFS have for the combined events, 2-3 inch amounts are shown to the north and south. The black hole swallows us again.
The EURO
The GFS
Well, one more day of relatively nice weather, and then we open the door to colder weather later Sunday. We all knew it was too good to last, but it sure was sweet while it was here. Roll weather...TS
