POTENT STORM NEXT WEEK
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WICKED WIND OF THE WEST....
An intense area of low pressure over the Great Lakes Friday produced some rip-roaring winds. W/NW gusts of up to 60s miles an hour, combined with dry barren fields, whipped up blowing dust. Visibility was suddenly and significantly restricted for brief periods along portions of HWY 30 in central and eastern Iowa. A high wind warning for gusts of 50 to 60 mph was issued for my northern counties through Friday evening.
Here are some of the peak gusts reported by the NWS, with a max of 61 in Cedar Rapids and 60 in Dubuque.
Additionally, red flag warnings were also posted for a high grassland fire danger. The hi-res GOES 16 satellite image shows a hotspot indicating a fire near Garrison, Iowa around 3:00pm Friday. Fires are extremely difficult to contain in the type of conditions experienced late Friday.
With the system rapidly pulling away, brisk winds Saturday morning will steadily diminish in the afternoon and become light Saturday night. That leaves us with a dry weekend and much more seasonal temperatures. Highs will cool to the low to mid 30s Saturday before warming into the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday.
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MAJOR MARCH STORM BY TUESDAY
March is going to sneak in on a relatively quiet note this weekend, but the lion doesn't sleep for long. All the major models are pointing to a strong system Tuesday and Wednesday that is likely to bring high winds, and significant precipitation. The late winter storm will have the potential to bring thunderstorms to some areas and rain changing to snow in others. Models are still trying to converge on a common solution, but recent trends have shown an even stronger storm than 24 hours ago with a westerly nudge, especially on the EURO.
It seems fairly obvious now that my area is now going to be in close proximity to the track. That is pretty typical for eastern Iowa with these intense spring cyclones, and it makes for a very challenging forecast with the potential for a part of the region to be split by the warm sector. That can lead to very large temperature spreads from NW to SE of up to 20 degrees+. Some areas could eventually see a transition from rain to dynamically driven snow. It all depends on where the final track is situated, and that is still up for grabs.
The latest ensembles of the EURO have shown a slight westward shift and a lower central pressure than 24 hours ago. Clustering of the individual members indicates a low pressure track into WC Illinois that has the potential of producing a sub 980mb low.
The single operational model of the EURO, a solution based on its ensembles, shows the surface low near La Salle/Peru in NC Illinois Wednesday morning with rain occurring over the bulk of my area. It is about to change to snow in my eastern Iowa counties. Further NW, significant accumulating snow is falling from central Iowa into SE Minnesota.
The GFS ensembles, which were SE of Chicago yesterday, have shifted well west and are now broadly favoring a center near the Quad Cities. Still, there's a lot of variance from one member to the next.
The single operational solution of the GFS has a 981mb low situated just east of Dubuque Wednesday morning. Rain is attempting to change to snow in eastern Iowa as cold air wraps in around the center.
Sticking with the ensembles, which are a bit more reliable this early in the game, here's what the EURO indicates for total precipitation. That's a nice soaker.
The GFS is a bit lighter, but still very much focused on my area with its heavier amounts. This is much needed precipitation which would be quite beneficial and welcome to the farming community.
I know you all want answers about any potential snow, but we're not to that point yet. Even if I knew the precise track, the only way snow falls is if vertical velocities due to strong forcing can drive evaporative cooling. This dynamic process is likely to occur NW of the low, assuming the system reaches the strength that trends are indicating. Initially, cold air is not available to support anything but rain, so it's paramount dynamic cooling takes place for any accumulating snow to occur. That would not be until late Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
At least for now, most of the heavier precipitation should fall as rain, with a transition to light snow as it winds down behind the low Wednesday. Some minor accumulations are possible, especially in eastern Iowa. Much higher amounts could fall from NC Iowa into Minnesota and NW Wisconsin.
By the way, models are consistently showing a central low pressure of 979mb somewhere in my area, which equates to 28.90 inches. That's a wind machine, and I would think at a minimum, somebody locally could see gusts of at least 50 mph.
Whether there is snow or not, this should be a sizable storm with plenty of precipitation and wind. There's also the threat of severe weather, but that should be well to our south. Already, SPC has a 30 percent outlook in place for next Tuesday over the lower Mississippi Valley. It's getting to be that time of year!
So as March "marches" in like a lamb, keep in mind the lion is right behind, and we'll hear it roar as soon as Tuesday night. We'll keep you abreast of any new developments over the weekend. For now, it looks to be a complex system with plenty of challenges for an old boy like me. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
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