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Hi everyone, as you know, TSwails.com is a no-pay site; existing on voluntary subscriptions or personal donations. If you find value in the site, I'm asking kindly that you make the donation you feel is worthy. I'm suggesting $20.00, roughly a nickel a day. Less than 5% of my readers donate, so your gift is not only appreciated, it helps immensely. Your contribution, whatever you can swing, supports the content, infrastructure, and operational costs. Thanks for anything you can do!
FORECAST DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW...
It is important to note that your donation, whatever you can swing, supports the content, infrastructure, and operational costs of TSwails.com. Entering our 12th year of operation, we've become one of the most in-depth, trusted, and informative weather sites in the Midwest. Without your loyalty and financial help, this dream could have never become a reality. As weather friends, you are considered a part of my family, and we can't thank you enough for putting your trust in the TSwails brand.
THE TSWAILS STORY
Back in 2013, I came to the decision that I could make a more significant difference in people's lives by starting a website dedicated to the weather and people of the Midwest. I aimed to drill into the specifics of how a forecast is produced and to teach others what's taken me a lifetime to learn. Additionally, I wanted to share my passion for weather and the thoughts, insights, and challenges that shape forecast strategy. The whole idea was to offer users a behind-the-scenes perspective they couldn't get anywhere else. An honest, personalized, in-depth look at what was about to happen in their backyard.
Twelve years later, I'm again asking for your help. Running a website like this does require working capital. Despite the many hours I devote to preparing my blogs, my only compensation is your donation, yet I pay my weather contributors as their incredible work in writing blogs and analyses deserves compensation. Then there are legal fees, server expenses, hosting fees and data sites I pay to get the best weather data possible. The time and expenses add up.
For many years, I subsidized the site and its expenses through my employment as a television meteorologist. However, now that I'm retired that financial outlet no longer exists, With a fixed income and a daughter in college, I humbly ask for a voluntary donation. While any amount helps, I'm suggesting you consider $20. That's about 4 cents a day for the more than 450 posts generated over the past year. I hope you feel that's an exceptional value and a service worth paying for, especially if I've helped, educated, or entertained you these past twelve years.
Your generosity will allow me to continue my goal of providing the best weather information possible for my area and beyond. I sincerely want to be the source you can count on when the skies threaten, or plans need to be made. It's my mission to be out in front of the weather, so you can be prepared. Whether your business is farming, construction, cutting grass, or plowing snow, you can depend on me for accurate forecasts to make vital personal and financial decisions. After 48 years, I remain committed to you.
Thank you so much for considering a contribution, and rest assured that you will get a solid, experienced product that is well worth the investment. I hope you can see the effort that goes into each and every post. You have the TSwails word on that.
By the way, the support form is safe and secure and has nothing to do with Facebook. The future of TSwails.com is in your hands. Thanks for anything you can do to support the site. All the best and roll weather...TS
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T. Swails
Since its inception, TSwails.com has grown to a point where there are 1.92 million active users. Virtually every country in the world has weather enthusiasts who check in with the site to see what's going on with Midwest weather. I never saw that coming! A pat on the back to everyone who made it happen. The map below shows the strong following the site has around the Midwest, all thanks to you!
WEATHER OR NOT...
That fresh snow that fell over much of the area Wednesday certainly did its dirty work Friday morning. With clear skies and light winds allowing maximum radiational cooling, lows plummeted, especially in parts of EC Iowa where 2-3 inch depths remain. Steve Gottschalk in Lowden, Iowa hit 16 below and Cedar Rapids was not far behind with a reading of minus 13.
Notice how the coldest readings occurred where the heavier snow fell mid-week. It's just a given, snow cover is a detriment to warming.
The next week is predominantly dry with a W/NW flow aloft. That will see to it that moisture is scant and so is precipitation. I doubt we see anything more than a trace before the end of the month. The good news is centered on the fact warmer readings are anticipated next week, when several days of 40s are a distinct possibility.
One of the key drivers in the warmer pattern is the PNA (Pacific North America Oscillation). It is in the process of reverting to a negative phase. Instead of a trough over the eastern U.S. pulling cold (often times Arctic) air into the Midwest, the trough retrogrades to the western flank of the nation.
Such a loading pattern has significant implications in two ways. First, the source region of our air is significantly warmer.
Second, the storm track favors a path that cuts through the center of the nation. That gets us near the baroclinic zone where warm and cold air masses converge. With time, moisture should emerge out of the southwest that greatly enhances precipitation chances in the first half of February. Whether we get rain or snow is a bigger question that remains to be answered. Being so close to the storm track means either type is possible, depending on the paths of individual short waves that come out of the SW flow. Either way, this is certainly looking like a more productive period coming up for precipitation starting next weekend. Here you can see the negative PNA evolving late this week and remaining in place for the foreseeable future.
Both the GFS and EURO indicate some respectable precipitation totals through February 8th, especially considering none of this falls until February 1st at the earliest. In other words, these are only 8 day totals.
The GFS
The EURO
The EURO is also showing some snow potential, but again until we get a firm handle on the track of individual systems, I would not place a lot of faith in specific amounts. It's just too early, and a small shift could mean rain as opposed to snow. However, the fact we have a shot is a big deal.
Meantime, the next 7 days should be dry and much warmer than the last 2 weeks. January should go out like a lamb. Then we'll see if February has any lion in it. Roll weather...TS
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