OUT LIKE A LAMB...
Before I get to the coming thaw, an update on the snow of the past few days that, at least for now, has it looking like Christmas in my northern counties. While Thursday's system didn't produce much for accumulations in my immediate area, it really whitened things up for our neighbors just to the north. Look at the snow totals for southern Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Beaver Dam, Wisconsin (between Madison and Oshkosh) picked up 13.8 inches of powder! How sweet is that.
You can see the path the clipper took from NW to SE, just grazing my NE counties.
Seasonal snow accumulations, which were anemic across the upper Midwest, improved considerably since Tuesday night. However, there are places in my local area that are yet to see their first inch of snow. In fact, several spots have had more ice than snow accumulation.
These are the reported snow depths as of Friday. It's white in my northern counties, but plenty of brown exists from about HWY 30 south.
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A THAW ON THE BURNER...
From the looks of things, the famous January thaw may come early this year. After a frosty day Saturday with highs in the low 20s north, to the mid and upper 20s elsewhere, the upper level pattern undergoes a significant change that allows a healthy warm-up for the holiday and beyond.
This development has been long teleconnected by the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation). It's rotation into phase 6 is the stuff that thaws are made of in winter. Speaking of winter, it officially began with the arrival of the solstice at 3:21am Friday night. Back to the MJO, after an extended 2-week stay in phase 5, it is rapidly cycling through phase 6. It does not stay in it for long, but the timing is right for a burst of mild air December 23rd-29th.
Below you can see the phase 6 temperature and precipitation analogs in December
This is the long range temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, December 24-30th.
One of the warmer days appears to be December 28th when highs are projected by the GFS to rise into the 50s. A 60 degree high is possible as far north as the Quad Cities.
Readings in most areas are shown to be up to 28–30 degrees above normal.
The GFS meteogram shows the big bump on temperatures associated with the phase 6 MJO. Note the change to colder weather at the end of the period when the MJO swings into phase 7.
By all accounts, the well above normal temperatures should hang on through at least December 31st. Meaning, December goes out like a lamb.
As I mentioned earlier, by then the MJO is out of phase 6 and on the move in phase 7. On top of that, the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) has reached the official classification of a La Nina. Combining a a phase 7 MJO with a La Nina state produces a 500mb height anomaly (jet stream) that looks like this.
That has the potential to be interesting, with a trough centered over the Midwest providing storminess and a ridge off the Pacific NW coast delivering enough cold to bring snow. How everything evolves is impossible to say, but in theory that's the look I like to see for snow somewhere in the Midwest. Here's hoping.
Have a fine first day of winter. Time to shop until I drop. Until next time, roll weather.....TS
