NOW OR NEVER...
A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS....
Hi everyone, I realize times are tough, and we are all feeling the pinch of inflation. That's the primary reason why this is a no pay site. However, I really could use your help to raise funds for the operational costs and time I invest in this site. Donations have been significantly down this year and to reach my goal of breaking even, I have a long way to go. Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. That way, we can keep things rolling as they have for more than 12 years. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. So again, if you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation to support TSwails today. Thanks for your time and loyalty, TS
IRONING OUT THE DETAILS OF WHAT COULD BE...
What you are looking at below is the GFS depiction of the snow it's projecting between now and February 23rd. From coast to coast, that is a snowy period across the northern half of the nation. Because there are two weeks of snow and multiple snow systems involved, this is just a guide as to what could be. That said, at face value, the next week 10 days look mighty wintry across the northern half of the nation.
Even more impressive, the EURO is in lock step as of Friday night, showing this for snow over the same period.
We've had some cold periods this winter, but for most, the snow that often accompanies it has just not materialized. Here's the seasonal snowfall through February 6th. Compare that to the first map showing what's indicated over the coming 14 days.
Below you can see what's fallen the past 30 days. A few spots in my area haven't had enough to track a cat.
The Iowa Mesonet produced this graphic showing total snow accumulations for Midwest cities.
That's resulted in these snow departures, which have grown to over 20 inches in Dubuque and the Quad Cities.
I think the big question for my area will be the depth of the cold air. High pressure will be pushing cold into the Midwest while low pressure, (the stuff of storms) runs around the southern extent of the cold. While you need to have cold for snow, too much of it ruins the potential. You want to be just north of the baroclinic boundary (storm track) where it's cold enough to snow, but ample moisture is nearby.
The system that starts the snow parade next Wednesday looks like this on the charts tonight. Up to an inch of available water vapor is shown just east of St. Louis. It lowers to .37 in Dubuque and in the real cold air in Minnesota dips to .07". The 0 degree (snow line) is on a bead running from St Louis to Indianapolis. For the best snow ratios and heaviest snow, I would like to be on that dotted red line where 850 temps of -4 to -8 reside.
A closed 850mb circulation is shown developing in central Illinois. 150 to 200 miles NW of the 850 low is where the maximum snow band would likely develop (if model trends hold). That's approximately where the sweet spot is shown above.
If the models remain on track, which there is no guarantee of at this distance, the heaviest snow would threaten my SE counties. Even so, a nice deformation band with several inches of snow would certainly extend well NW of that into my northern counties. Here's the surface depiction and snow band Wednesday evening on the EURO.
Essentially, that's the process you work through to define the sweet spot for heavy snow. In this case, if the cold air is stronger in depth, the whole system shifts SE. That is a concern and the one factor that could blow this up for us locally. On the other hand, a little more phasing and the track is further NW, and we are in the game big time. By Sunday, we should have a pretty good handle on what our fortunes will be.
There are a couple other disturbances that may come out of the mean trough after that with additional snow. It looks to me as though the same issue of where we are in relation to cold air and storm track will come into play again. One thing seems certain, we are not going to have concerns about rain. It's snow or go home! Normally I would show you the snow totals of the EURO and GFS over the next 2 weeks, but they both came in so large that I doubt there is any way they could verify. Suffice it to say, they were spectacular, true eye candy! If we are seeing anything similar tomorrow, I will be more inclined to put them up.
On the topic of cold, just how frigid we get will be impacted by snow cover. If we get a good base, sub-zero readings are in our future late next week. The EURO shows this for 7 day mean temperature departures.
WEEK ONE (February 7th-14th)
WEEK 2 (February 14th-21st)
The EURO has this for lows the morning of the 18th.
These are the ensuing temperature departures. For perspective, those readings are about 40 degrees below normal!
Last thing I will mention is the weather system that advances to our south today. Some moisture, be it limited, is trying to generate warm advection. There could be enough saturation for some light freezing drizzle in the south and perhaps some light snow at times elsewhere further north. This could result in a thin glaze and some slick spots. Most models show very little precipitation, with limited ice introduction in the saturation process. The only model that is showing some issue is the 3k NAM which show some snow totals up to an inch. It's an outlier, and I will be surprised if it verifies to that degree. The other models show very little snow, aside from perhaps a dusting in the far north.
THE 3K NAM
THE EURO
The GFS
THE HRRR
After that, colder air filters in on Sunday, with most highs holding in the mid to upper 20s. Next week, the door opens to the best snow chances of the winter. It's now or never for the allusive white gold. Roll weather and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
