NOTHING LIKE A SNOW DAY....

A mid-winter storm is on its way to the region today bringing snow and brisk winds. By the time it's over Tuesday night, all but the far southeast will be scooping 4-8 inches of fresh powder, perhaps a bit more in a few spots. Needless to say, it will be a slow day on the roads.

At the time of this post, winter storm warnings (in pink) are in effect until Thursday evening for most of the area NW of a line from Burlington to Sterling Rock Falls. Winter weather advisories are flying in surrounding counties.

New data has been coming in regarding the impending snow system. As I indicated in last nights post, many models have shown a trend to shift the max snowband further southeast from where it was situated yesterday. This continues to be supported by most models and is the way I am leaning. The odd man out right now is the GFS which so far has held on to its idea of the heavy snow band furthest northwest. Here is its solution

The EURO has less snow in the NW and runs a heavy swath northeast right through the heart of my area, including the Quad Cities.

Splitting the difference, the heaviest snows 4-8 inches, seem most likely to fall in a 70 mile wide band to the NW of a line that extends from Mt. Pleasant to the Quad Cities on to Sterling Rock falls. A couple spots could top 8" if banding develops. Also, heavier snow is also likely further into the area southeast of the Quad Cities. Instead of 1-3" totals, amounts for much of that area could reach 2-4", lightest in the far southeast corner of my region. That is depicted in the current NWS forecast which looks like this.

The snow should be underway in most areas by 9:00am Thursday and ends in all areas by 9:00pm Thursday evening. It will be accompanied by northeast winds that are likely to gust as high as 30 mph. This should support blowing and drifting snow in open areas, especially Thursday afternoon and night as snow ratios lower and temperatures fall.

Here's what other models are suggesting for snow totals. These are not forecasts, just raw model output the forecast is derived from.

The 3k NAM

The 12k NAM

The Candian GEM

The HRRR

The NWS snowfall product indicates the following odds of 1, 4, 6, and 8 inch snow totals.

1 inch or more

4 inches or more

6 inches or more

8 inches or more

Once the snow stops a quick shot of cold air descends on the area Friday with highs only in the low to mid 20s. However, the chill ejects rapidly allowing readings to modify over the weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday should hit the 30s in the heavy snow cover with some 40s possible in the far southeast Sunday. Quiet conditions are expected with mostly sunny skies. Not bad. Roll weather...TS

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