NEAR THE LINE OF FIRE

Hello everyone! Before we jump into the forecast I want introduce myself as 'Chief' Terry’s new weekend assistant here on the blog. I’m Meteorologist Nick Stewart, a spaceflight meteorologist at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. Some of you might recognize me from KGAN-TV in Cedar Rapids, Iowa where I worked from 2017-2023 as a meteorologist and storm chaser. Prior to that I was in Quincy, Illinois as a weekend meteorologist at KHQA-TV serving west-central Illinois, southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. So I have spent most of my professional career forecasting weather in the Midwest.

Terry and I have been working together and chasing periodically together since I worked under him at KGAN. We have seen several tornadoes together over the years including the EF-4 tornado in Linwood, Kansas in 2019 and the Malcom, Iowa tornado in 2023 – part of the historic March 31 outbreak.

I hope to continue keeping you all updated on the weather and some inside-baseball, or inside-meteorology rather, into the forecast.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS

Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlooks for this week.

A spring-like pattern is setting up over the central US for the next week with a few rounds of severe weather in the forecast.

Sunday, a rather high-end severe weather event looks to take shape across the central US, however this should mostly miss our area off to the east and southeast. As it stands, a Level 3 of 5, an Enhanced Risk, is in place from northern Illinois down to the Gulf coast. Damaging wind and large hail will be possible with these storms, with tornadoes also possible down in central and southern Illinois/Missouri. A few strong tornadoes might be possible south of St. Louis.

Euro forecast for Tuesday night shows a line of thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and heavy rain moving through the region.

Locally, Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the first impactful weather event in this episode for our area. Thunderstorms, some severe, will be likely off to the west Tuesday afternoon and evening. The severe threat for the area is increasing with a Level 2 of 5, a Slight Risk, now issued for much of Iowa and northern Illinois. Thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and heavy rain are likely mainly Tuesday night. Rain may linger into early Wednesday morning.

Forecast rainfall Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

This will bring some beneficial rainfall to the area. Widespread rainfall totals will approach a half and inch to an inch. We could certainly use it!

A strong area of low pressure will bring elevated moisture across the Midwest and enhance wind shear for the region. This will set the stage for a volatile environment Wednesday very close to eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois.

Wednesday, another higher-end severe weather threat looks to evolve over the region, and this looks to clip at least part of our area. Right now, a Level 2 of 5, a Slight Risk, is in place for eastern Iowa and northern Illinois with a Level 3 of 5 risk, an Enhanced Risk, sitting not too far away. If this system slows down a little bit more, this could include more of our area with higher threat probabilities.

Thunderstorms are likely with damaging wind, hail and tornadoes all likely in the region. There will be plentiful shear over the region with modest instability. The risk areas are very similar-shaped Sunday and Wednesday but I do think Wednesday looks more concerning at the present time.

The biggest question will be how much Tuesday night’s rain and storms will impact the threat on Wednesday. For now, we will just watch it closely going forward, but there is quite a signal for severe weather this far out. Analogs are hinting higher chances in Illinois and Missouri, but Iowa is too close to rule out.

Climatology from late March into early April shows the severe weather chances spreading northwards into the Upper Midwest.

It’s not surprising we are seeing the uptick in severe weather. Early April we start seeing the historic probabilities of severe weather increase northward.

LONGER TERM OUTLOOK

Analogs are hinting at below-normal precipitation across the Midwest once we get to next weekend.

Once we get through this turbulent week we will have some quiet time headed into next weekend. Signals are indicating below-normal precipitation for much of the central US and this is also represented well by the Climate Prediction Center.

Long-term temperature outlook headed into early April. Don't focus too much on the exact temperatures but rather the patter, which leans towards below-normal temperatures.

Ensembles are also showing a cooling trend as we head into early April. Temperatures in the Quad Cities will dip into the upper 40s/low 50s, but on the plus side I don’t see any strong signal for snow!

Have a great rest of the weekend everyone!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart