MONKEY SEE WEATHER...
Monkey see, monkey do. That old saying is looking mighty appropriate for the North American weather pattern the next couple of weeks. Let me show you the 500mb jet stream alignment already in place Friday, November 29th.
Now, the projected 500mb mean flow 2 weeks later, the morning of Saturday, December 14th.
Nothing much changed. What really stands out is the consistency of the long wave upper air pattern, highlighted by a powerful ridge off the Pacific Northwest coast and a trough centered over the upper Great Lakes. While the troughing over the lakes is not as intense the 14th, it's significant and strong enough to imply the weather Monkey is still doing two weeks later what it's seeing today. For us in the Midwest, that indicates temperatures that should generally average below normal. That's what the Climate Prediction Center is essentially showing in its 8-14 day outlook ending December 13th.
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I've said this many times and here it comes again, NW flow also turns our atmosphere into a desert. Moisture is severely restricted, impairing precipitation production. Even when a little moisture can sneak into a clipper riding the ridge southeast, it moves so fast that any rain or snow that results is brief and light. Now and then, one may amplify enough to scare up a narrow band of somewhat heavier precipitation. However, the width of the band is typically quite narrow and the geographic area impacted is limited. The more substantial influence of a clipper is usually the trend to colder temperatures following its passage.
Notice over the next 15 days how the EURO shows below normal precipitation over the bulk of the continental U.S. I flat out cringe when I see this kind of pattern due to its lack of exciting, impactful weather. It's a nothingburger!
CPC shows near to below normal precipitation through December 13th. Personally, I think the CPC outlook is generous, and I expected the below normal amounts to be more widespread than shown around the Midwest.
While everything currently shown is minimal, models do indicate a clipper may come close enough later in the 14-day period to lay down a light mantle of snow. The north is currently favored, but that could easily shift north or south with a slight change in track. It could also vanish just as easily. Needless to say, I am not bullish on much in the way of snow through December 14th. That said, I'm no quitter and I remain hopeful we can find a way to get some snow in here by Christmas. Here's what models are suggesting for snow totals between now and December 14th.
The EURO ensemble
The GFS ensemble
The Canadian GEM ensemble
In the short term, the remainder of the holiday weekend looks quiet but cold. Temperatures are likely to remain below freezing through at least Monday of next week. Highs for the most part will be in the mid to upper 20s, well below the norms. Enjoy the last day of November, December is knocking hard on the door. Roll weather...TS.
