MEETING EXPECTATIONS...
A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS....
Hi everyone, I realize times are tough, and we are all feeling the pinch of inflation. That's the primary reason why this is a no pay site. However, I really could use your help to raise funds for the operational costs and time I invest in this site. Donations have been significantly down this year and to reach my goal of breaking even, I have a long way to go. Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. That way, we can keep things rolling as they have for more than 12 years. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. So again, if you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation to support TSwails today. Thanks for your time and loyalty, TS
THE BLAME GAME...
People cancel doctor's appointments based on these predictions!!!! Much needed appointments!!! How do you have predictions that go so wrong??
That is one of a number of comments from individuals who were upset about snow that did not materialize in their backyard with Wednesday's storm. I'm not sure the best way to answer that question? If you live in EC Iowa where 6–11 inches of snow fell (11.7" in Lowden, 9" in Cedar Rapids and 8" in Iowa City), my prediction was not wrong, and if anything was low. Consider this, the 11.7" snow in Lowden was the largest snow total anywhere in the United States.
I had said days ago the higher amounts were going to be in the northwest half of my area, especially from the Quad Cities northwest and that verified. Â However, the cut-off in heavy snow was dramatic from the Quad Cities southeast, more so than anticipated. Frankly, nobody can call that 24 hours in advance. The heavy snow band could just as easily have been 25 miles southeast and buried the Quad Cities under 11.7 inches instead of Lowden.
Thinking back, in my final post Tuesday night before snow started falling, (written in a car on my way home from a conference presentation in Des Moines), I put up these final model forecasts. If you look southeast of the Quad Cities, each of them shows a dry air intrusion and lower accumulations there. Additionally, each clearly showed the higher amounts in EC Iowa and NW Illinois. With snow about to begin, you would expect these amounts to be trustworthy. You're only as good as the information you have to draw from.
The HRRR
The 12K NAM
The EURO
The GFS
Noting the trend of lower amounts in SE Iowa and WC Illinois, my thoughts were that the warnings in effect SE of the Quad Cities should be downgraded to winter weather advisories. But, that is a decision I can not make. That is the responsibility of the NWS, a judgment call that is carefully considered. They eventually did pare it back late Wednesday morning.
Here's where I would have made the adjustment if I had the authority Tuesday night. I would have kept the Quad Cities in the warning and would have had to make a tough call about Lee and Des Moines Counties in the SE tip of Iowa. The only part of Illinois that I would have kept in winter storm warnings were 3 or 4 counties in the NW corner.
Even with the adjustments, it would not have been good enough because the dry air managed to push a bit further NW, cutting snow totals all the way to the Quad Cities. 30 miles made all the difference. Neither myself, the NWS, nor any other forecaster wants to mislead anyone, even if it's just for a small area. This is the ATMOSPHERE! It is vast and complicated. It's impressive we've advanced to the level we have. Sometimes, as in this case, you just can't see the mesocale details until the snow develops and shows its hand. By the time it was evident, I was asleep after an 18-hour day that included traveling 180 miles.
Over the last 2 weeks I have put up more than 35 posts on the changes unraveling in our weather pattern, which are still unfolding with another system on the way. As you know, I don't get paid for the work on my site unless I'm good enough to earn a voluntary donation, which I have to ask for, and pains me to do so.
If there is one thing I am certain of, it's that I am far from perfect and make mistakes. If I miss it in the eyes of some of you, that's on me. All I can say in my defense is that I gave it my best shot.
By the way, I don't cancel doctor's appointments, schools, church services, dance lessons, etc. That is not my decision or place to make. I'm not a hype guy. In an age when we are saturated with information, it is up to each of us to find the best sources and make educated, logical decisions.
The original question was, how do you have predictions that go so wrong? I guess in this case, it depends on where you were in my area to say if the prediction could even be construed as wrong. The definition of a forecast is an estimate of a future event or trend. The key word is "estimate". It's not called a CERTAINCAST for a reason. There is always some degree of doubt in anything unknown.
I spent way too long on this take, but I guess you can see, and feel my reactions after investing so much of myself in the outcome. In fact, I'm just burned out and need a reset. I'm calling it and will have more on Saturday's system by early afternoon. I'll be back on the horse with a hard hat by then. Furthermore, I hope you will join me. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
