MARCH STORM UPDATE...

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LATE WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK

Looking at the latest runs of the models, I've seen nothing that is significantly different. One small change is that the ensembles of the EURO have made a slight shift NW on the storm track. The best clustering of the 50 members is centered on Freeport, Illinois Wednesday morning

The EURO is noticeably further SE (south of De Kalb).

My thinking is that the storm clips the SE tip of Iowa near Keokuk and then chugs NE between Rockford and Chicago. That's sort of a middle ground solution.

That being the case, precipitation begins as showers tonight and increases into heavier rain later Tuesday and Tuesday evening as strong forcing arrives from the south. A few thunderstorms are even possible. The track is not conducive to severe weather, but some small hail in elevated storms is possible in the stronger updrafts.

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Wednesday morning, as the low swings into Illinois, rain will begin to mix with and change to snow in eastern Iowa. The transition process occurs slower in Illinois, but at least light snow or snow showers should arrive there later in the day.

Winds Tuesday will be gusty, but the really powerful speeds hold off until Wednesday morning, when a shift to the N/NW takes place behind the 28.98" low. Gusts could hit or exceed 50 mph, especially in eastern Iowa.

All the guidance shows widespread and generous precipitation. Amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches look common. A few spots could reach the 2-inch level with abundant moisture and forcing. This is what the ensembles show for totals.

The EURO

The GFS

Snow is again more of a wildcard due to the challenge of timing the change over. It still appears that the best chance of accumulations of 1–2 inches should be NW of a line from Ottumwa to Iowa City to about Dubuque. A sooner transition could yield some 3 inch amounts in the far NW. On the other hand, if it's slower, amounts go down. SE of that line, totals are likely to be an inch or less, especially in my SE counties closer to the track. Here's what guidance is suggesting for snowfall. A reminder, this is raw model output, not a forecast. This is what the forecast is developed from.

The EURO

The GFS

The 12k NAM

The NAM

THE SREF ensemble 10:1 ratio

As you can see, the further west you go from the Mississippi, the higher the snow totals will be. Central Iowa and SE Minnesota into NW Wisconsin will take the brunt of the snow beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday. A winter storm watch is out for the combination of heavy snow and high winds that could create without conditions. NWS offices to the west are contemplating whether blizzard qualifications will be met as we speak. Things out that way could become very difficult for travelers by Wednesday morning.

Winter weather advisories are possible at some point further east into some of my Iowa counties. Wind headlines are also likely. That's where we stand for now. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS