MARCH IS IN A MOOD...
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A FINAL PERSONAL APPEAL
Hi all. I'm still hoping for a few dollars to reach my fund-raising goal (I'm on the cusp). Personally, I'm appealing to those of you who appreciate the reliability, honesty, accuracy, and knowledge of the site, to consider a donation, (especially if it helps with financial decisions related to your business). If you fall into any of these categories and find value in the effort put forth, I humbly ask that you make a $20 dollar investment into this unique and reliable product.
Thanks so much, T. Swails
RINSE AND REPEAT, HERE WE GO AGAIN
The nation has been in a very active weather pattern this March, with 2 major storms and a 3rd on the way. Blizzards have raged in parts of the NC United States and severe weather has been very active and deadly further to the south. Below you can see the plots of tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail so far this month. 13 of the 126 tornadoes reported have been EF2 or greater.
Since Friday, 42 people have died as a result of the weekend severe weather outbreak that ran from Friday through Sunday. Overall, three deaths were reported in Alabama, three in Arkansas, 12 in Missouri, four in Oklahoma, eight in Kansas, six in Mississippi, two in North Carolina and four in Texas, according to multiple sources. Most of the fatalities were due to tornadoes.
Based on unofficial data from the Iowa Mesonet, the National Weather Service issued 1,011 Tornado + Severe Thunderstorm + Flash Flood Warnings over the period March 14-16th. The chart below indicates the total is the largest number of such combined warnings over a three-day period falling within the month of March.
This next storm looks to track very similar to the powerful system that brought blizzard conditions to Iowa and Minnesota, March 5th and the last one that blew through the state March 14th. Due to their extremely deep central pressures, each of those storms were wind machines producing gusts of up to 60 mph+ without the aid of thunderstorms. This one will be no different in that regard. Take a look at some of the wind gusts possible in NW Iowa. From Omaha to Storm Lake gusts as high as 66mph at shown at 10 meters.
What's most impressive about those gusts are that they occur within the area that could see up to a foot of snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. The NAM shows substantially more than that in spots. With the blizzard 2 weeks ago in western Iowa, 8 foot drifts developed with substantially less snow than what is show here. While the heavy snow band is relatively narrow, traveling within it could be very difficult Wednesday.
There is a winter storm watch in effect for much of the NW half of Iowa and SE Minnesota, where the NWS is seriously considering issuing blizzard warnings in parts of that region, including eastern Nebraska. These may be posted at some time Tuesday.
Amazingly, ahead of all this Tuesday it will be a fine day and there won't be much evidence of the turmoil to come. Under partly sunny skies, highs should range from about 70 north to the mid to perhaps upper 70s in the far south. While Tuesday night starts quiet, the arrival of a potent low level jet at 850mb could pop some warm advection showers and storms late. These are going to be elevated if they get going, but would have the potential to produce a few hailers.
The main show is tied to the surface low, which rides into the area early Wednesday afternoon. Most models track the low through EC Iowa, a little southeast of Dubuque. This is critical in that temperatures could range immensely based on where the warm sector resides. The EURO at 1pm Wednesday has temperatures around 60 in my far NW counties, while low 70s are found from the Mississippi River southeast.
Just 3 hours later, temperatures have dropped 24 degrees in Dubuque from 61 to 37 degrees.
What the EURO shows is the more likely scenario, but the 12 and 3k NAM has the surface low tracking further south, closer to the Quad Cities. That keeps my area north of HWY 30 in the cold sector all day Wednesday, and highs never get out of the 30s and 40s, and will fall even more later in the day. While the majority of solutions are further north, if easterly winds produce lake effect cooling coming off the chilly waters of Lake Michigan, the colder solutions of the 12 and 3k NAM may have credence in my northern counties. If the CAMS verify, it could result in a snowier solution for much of my area. Something to monitor closely.
Assuming the EURO is correct, (which it usually is at this distance), the first half of Wednesday is mild as shown above, with a triple point arriving in EC Iowa around noon. Attached to the surface low is a cold front which would have the capability of generating surface based thunderstorms. You can see them on this depiction at 1:00pm.
As with last Friday's event, moisture is meager, with dew points no better than 52 to 53. That could create a brief window for a couple severe storms with a low CAPE, but high shear environment capable of surface based supercells. These can sometimes create some brief tornado spin ups, with wind by far the more likely concern. The early timing of the front, and lack of moisture, are significant negatives to overcome. SPC has a slight risk in place, just catching my counties from the Quad Cities east. We will know more later Tuesday.
As for precipitation, we again are so close to the track of the low that the attending dry slot keeps us from maximizing precipitation totals. Amounts should be heaviest in the northwest, where the dry slot is not as big a factor. Here's what the EURO and GFS show for potential rain totals.
The EURO
The GFS
As the low pushes east Wednesday afternoon, gusty winds and much colder temperatures will surge across the region. By Thursday morning, temperatures are generally in the 20s.
Howling NW winds will send wind chills well into the teens.
The arrival of the colder air Wednesday night will also allow wrap around moisture to stream into the region, which you can see here at Midnight, producing light snow. There is a chance of some accumulations, but the warm ground should preclude much in the way of accumulations. Some spots could see an inch or two, but with the track and dynamics still a bit uncertain, that issue remains lower confidence. I will leave it there for the time being.
No matter what, we are going from the 70s Tuesday to snow Wednesday night and wind chills in the teens by Thursday morning. Toss in some 50mph winds and perhaps a thunderstorm, and in 36 hours time, you have yourself the old weather buffet. Nothing like having a choice! Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, it would be hugely appreciated. TS
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