MAKING UP FOR LOST SNOW
A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS....
Hi everyone, I realize times are tough, and we are all feeling the pinch of inflation. That's the primary reason why this is a no pay site. However, I really could use your help to raise funds for the operational costs and time I invest in this site. Donations have been significantly down this year and to reach my goal of breaking even, I have a long way to go. Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. That way, we can keep things rolling as they have for more than 12 years. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. So again, if you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation to support TSwails today. Thanks for your time and loyalty, TS
IT'S A LONG WAY TO THE TOP IF YOU WANT TO ROCK AND ROLL...
For more than 2 weeks, I've been focused on the impactful period of weather that's ahead of us. It's a long way to the top of the mountain, and it's hard to see what's behind it sometimes. You get a glimpse now and then, and that's what keeps you going. I've tried to put you in "my shoes" to experience all the twists, turns, and insights that go into the process of forecasting a major pattern change. My hope is that you've enjoyed the ride so far. We have a way to go, but at least with Wednesday's system, we'll reach the crest before you know it. Let's keep climbing!
Since our last update, the EURO has moved to a more aggressive solution regarding heavier snow Wednesday. What I like about its solution is the 850mb and 925mb circulations that grind across Missouri into central Illinois. You hear a lot about the surface low tracks, but the 850 and 925 closed circulations in a good snow producing system are always further NW and responsible for enhanced forcing. Usually, it's about 150 miles NW of the 850 low that you see the heaviest snow band. The EURO, if correct, is pointing at eastern Iowa and NW Illinois.
What you see below is the dendritic growth zone on the SREF (the short range ensemble forecast). It's a specific layer in the atmosphere where the temperature conditions are ideal for the formation of large, complex snowflake crystals called dendrites, essentially the prime area where heavy snow is created; this zone typically occurs at temperatures between -12°C and -18°C, when there is sufficient moisture present for optimal snowflake growth. That is in our favor for some good snow production.Â
The SREF snow plumes are impressive all the way to Dubuque. Being an ensemble comprised of short range guidance, you can see all the various solutions considered through Wednesday night. The lowest member was 1.3", the highest 14.7", and the average of the nearly 30 members, is 7.2. That's based on a 10:1 ratio. The SREF is indicating ratios near Dubuque of 15:1 which would add several more inches than shown. Check out the range shown
By the way, here's the mean 500mb forecast on the SREF showing a 100kt speed max in the right exit region of the jet. Some nice dynamics there.
You've seen some very positive parameters for snow on the EURO operational run and SREF ensembles, but so far the GFS hasn't committed. It remains in a more southerly camp with less amplification. Once again, that means some uncertainty remains, keeping me from fully committing to the more aggressive solutions. However, I think they have far more merit than the GFS, and I suspect amounts will be several inches higher than what the GFS is currently showing. Until I see better consistency, something that should happen later Monday, I would still be cautious buying into specific amounts yet. In fact, that SREF plume is a good example that clustering is still not as tight as a forecaster would like to see. Whatever the mean is shown to be (7.2" above), you want amounts to be only 1–2 inches above or below that threshold. That's the money ball. Not a range of 14.7" to 1.3" that's shown above.
With that, here is what the latest operational runs are showing for snow. I'm using them for Wednesday because they account for higher snow ratios than 10:1 and their ensembles do not. I would be mystified if the NWS does not issue a winter storm watch for much of the area no later than Monday afternoon if trends hold.
The EURO
The GFS
THE SREF (Short range ensemble forecast). Please note this only at a 10:1 ratio, which means amounts could be up to 5 inches higher in spots than shown, similar to the EURO.
The Canadian GEM has this for amounts.
The last order of business is the weekend system for Saturday. Guidance for the time being is sending another nice slug of energy with some healthy snows. I'm not ready to get into details on that yet. The GOES satellite shows the 2 systems entrenched in the long wave trough to the W/SW.
I'll have more on where we stand later Monday. Until then, think snow, roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
