MAJOR LATE WINTER STORM
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LATE WINTER STORM ON TAP STARTING TUESDAY....
There is no doubt about the fact, a significant storm will bring a wide range of impactful weather conditions to the Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Most guidance suggests at least 1 inch of precipitation (some more than 2 inches in spots near the I-80 corridor). The EURO suggests totals that look like this.
Models are coming into good agreement on the overall track. The latest ensembles of the EURO are honing in on a path that is near or a bit SE of the Quad Cities.
Here's a closer look at individual members that indicates the greatest concentration of clustering in that area. The track could still deviate some, but I think it's very much in the ballpark.
If anything, the GFS is slightly weaker in intensity and further SE, closer to Peoria. Either way it's pretty much a slam dunk this will be the largest most widespread precipitation event in nearly 4 months.
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Without a doubt, for the majority of the storm, precipitation falls as rain. However, as the low crosses SE Iowa into Illinois, wind turn northerly tapping colder air. Additionally, very strong vertical velocities will drive dynamic evaporative cooling. This is going to change rain to snow, especially west of the Mississippi. This is the part of the forecast where confidence remains low due to the timing and duration of the snow transition. I feel the area NW of a line from roughly Ottumwa to Iowa City northeast to Dubuque has the potential for 1–2 inches of wet snow (maybe 3 in my far NW counties). From there SE, amounts should be much lighter, an inch or less. I do not see snow developing until Wednesday morning.
I also need to mention, this is a very dynamic system, the type that can over-perform with such intense dynamics involved NW of the storm track. However, mesoscale processes still unknown, (such as convection), could alter the transition as well as a shift in the track. The snow amounts are very much in flux and be lower or higher. In other words, nobody is really sure how it will play out just yet. For sure though, the further NW you go from the Quad Cities, the better the chances of seeing wet accumulations.
Now, most guidance is indicating a deep low pressure around 980mb, that's 28.93 inches. That is going to generate another intense pressure gradient that really get the winds cranking Wednesday. I could certainly see gusts of 45-55 develop. If that coincides with falling snow and crashing temperatures, that could make things very interesting with visibility restrictions. I know that further west in Iowa up into Minnesota, NWS offices are contemplating if blizzard standards might be reached. Travel in some parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could be quite treacherous Tuesday night and Wednesday
Another little tidbit to consider is there will be some CAPE (instability) and with the robust forcing, thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, (thundersnow could even show up for a time Wednesday in the west). On top of that, Tuesday evening the surface low may get into SE Iowa or WC Illinois, bringing the warm sector into that part of my area. It does not appear that temperatures would get much above 50, but despite low CAPE shear will be quite significant. That could create some rotating up drafts capable of at least brief tornado spin ups. This again is mainly south of HWY 34 Tuesday evening. It's not a high risk yet, but something to watch. The more significant concern is further south in the rich, warm moist air over the lower Mississippi Valley.
The bottom line is that rain, scattered thunderstorms, heavy rain, and at least some light snow are in the cards. Things get rolling Tuesday. Obviously, this is a fluid situation with the track near of over parts of my area. A small deviation in track or timing, could make a big difference in the sensible weather we end up seeing. Stay tuned. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
