LIONS, TIGERS, AND BEARS, OH MY...
I STILL NEED HELP TO MEET MY FUNDRASING GOALS...
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LIONS, TIGERS, AND BEARS...OH MY!
I was enjoying my morning Mountain Dew and surfing the web Friday morning when I came across this headline that proclaimed, the Midwest digs out from powerful winter storm. I thought to myself, I live in the Midwest, I'm not digging out. Neither is Iowa, Missouri, or Illinois...hmmm. Then I read on and I see southern California is bracing for a blizzard, well maybe in the mountains but not in LA or San Diego which I was led to believe. Lions, tigers, and bears, show me the yellow brick road. I wonder if the sun will rise tomorrow.
If there is one thing I really dislike about our world it's the need to make everything the worst there's ever been. It's snowed a foot in Minnesota countless times and yes Virginia, it rains (and snows) in California. I'll even go on the record to predict it will happen again numerous times in the future. That's all I have to say about it, if you know what I mean!
ROCK AND ROLL WEATHER IS HERE TO STAY...
Our weekend here in the Midwest stays calm as we are in between weather gigs. That means quiet conditions with a warming trend. Highs Saturday will climb into the range of 40-45 and by Sunday readings of 50-55 are on the table in all but the far north where some upper 40s are expected.
Sunday night the band is plugged in and it's back to rock and roll weather with a series of disturbances likely after that. The first of the bunch is a fast moving but well organized storm that brings a healthy February rain later Sunday night and the first half of Monday. There will certainly be no issues with snow as highs Monday should soar well into the 50s, maybe 60 in the far southeast. The mild conditions and strong dynamics indicate the potential for some embedded thunderstorms. K index values up to 35 reveal the instability.
Rain totals of an inch or more are also possible as the system swings through. Here's what models are suggesting for rain totals through Monday.
The GFS
The EURO
The Canadian GEM
Behind Mondays system there's a short break into Tuesday as the western trough reloads. At some point energy is expected to come out of the west and develop another storm. The question then becomes does it fully phase with all the energy bundled, or does it come out in chunks with a couple smaller systems? How the energy is resolved will impact temperatures as well as precipitation. Models have been struggling with a consistent solution and for now confidence is low on how it all plays out. More time is needed to determine the outcome.
One trending issue long term is colder temperatues entering the pattern after March 10th. Notice during week 1 (February 24-March 3) the cold is centered on the west.
By week two (March 4-11th) colder air is pushig east of the Mississippi.
On March 11th itself, the temperature departures are growing significant across the nation as blocking aloft at northern latitudes allows cold air to push effectively into the country.
Here's the 15 day precipitation departures on the EURO indicating above normal totals over the east-central U.S.
Some of the precipitation is likely to come in the form of snow at some point with the EURO ensemble mean indicating this for snowfall over the 15 day period ending March 11th.
I guess for now that's where I will leave it. Have a fantastic weekend and if you can, please support TSwails with a donation. Just click on the banner below! Roll weather...TS
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