LET THE STORM COMMENCE
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AND WE ARE OFF AND RUNNING
After a lot of pre-event chatter, it's crunch time, with a powerful mid-latitude cyclone set to unleash its anger on the Midwest over the next 24–36 hours. Radars are going to light up like they haven't for nearly 4 months due to the strength of this dynamic system. If only temperatures were colder, this would be a shut-down blizzard for many of us (and it still may be off to the west). But alas, most of the precipitation will come in the form of rain locally before enough cold air enters the storm and turn its rain to snow.
Look at the storm coming together in the satellite loop. You can almost see an eye denoting the center of the energy in western Nebraska. The clouds are boiling like soup on the stove. You can also see the moisture surging into Iowa on the subtropical jet. That will bring us a hefty rain. I'm impressed with the spin, denoting the vorticity that will have this dog whirling like a top.
One of the most impressive features regarding the storm will be its central pressure. The HRRR shows a 973mb low not far from Kansas City late Tuesday evening. That translates to a 28.73 inch pressure on your home barometer. If you notice over western Iowa, the isobars (black lines) are really packed. Pressures are rising rapidly from there into eastern Kansas. The tighter the isobars, the stronger the winds. And blow they will.
The HRRR shows these maximum 10 meter wind gusts over the duration of the storm. The whole western half of Iowa is 60-65 mph, with 74 showing up in the SW tip of the state! That's a category 1 hurricane.
Scattered showers will be around my area in the morning Tuesday, with the intensity reaching its greatest level in the afternoon and evening, when a robust jet max provides the lift for showers and even some thunderstorms. Temperatures in the 45-50 range won't deliver much instability, but the prolific lift and shear will at least get some elevated convection going. Any t/storms have the potential to produce some small hail, especially south of I-80.
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Later Tuesday night a dry slot looks to surge into much of my area and by morning the heavier rain has diminished, leaving just drizzle and spotty showers aside from the far NW. You can see how the dry air is getting wrapped into the center of circulation at 6:00am Wednesday. Further NW, winds are in the process of wrapping in from the NW and after a relatively calm period in the "eye" of the storm, they will explode on the scene Wednesday. Gusts of at least 50mph will follow the low as it heads for Chicago. Temperatures will fall and the deformation band you see in eastern Iowa will pivot S/SE. Rain will change to snow in eastern Iowa by late morning, with the transition taking place in the afternoon east of the Mississippi.
Before we get to any snow, here's what models are indicating for total rainfall. It's been a long time since we've seen anything like these numbers. Imagine if this were all snow!
The 3k NAM
The NAM
The HRRR
The EURO
The GFS
The SREF Short range ensembles
Back to snow. As we've been saying all along, the lack of cold air killed us on this one. Often times, a track like this would have at least pounded the area NW of the Quad Cities. Not in this day and age. Even though we get mainly rain, we won't avoid flakes entirely. That said, I think snow amounts will be minimal over this part of the Midwest. If there is an area that sees accumulations, it's most likely NW of a line from Iowa City to near Dubuque where an inch is possible. Latest trends show that may be a push with a track slightly further to the west. Amounts east of the Mississippi should range from a trace to 1/2 inch. Since we have a transition involved, timing the change over is everything and problematic. We should have a better handle in how things shake out with fresh data Tuesday afternoon. For sure, no snow falls anywhere until at least late Wednesday morning in eastern Iowa, where it spreads east. That's when the wind hits, temperatures fall, and things get a bit wintry.
Here's the raw model output, this is what the official forecast will be developed from. To be clear, these are not forecasts, just one model's idea. Consistency is what we like to see. Based on that idea, it's pretty obvious that the worst of this storm's wintry weather will be just to the northwest, where blizzard conditions are expected. Take a look for yourself at the snow guidance.
The 3k NAM
The HRRR
The 12K NAM
The EURO
The GFS. This looks wonky in EC Iowa down through the Quad Cities towards Galesburg. I have serious doubts about this depiction at this time.
The SREF Short range ensemble forecast.
Before I go, I see the NWS has issued a blizzard warning for places like Des Moines, Ames, Marshalltown, Waterloo and counties to the northwest. Whiteout conditions are possible in this area late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with winds of 50-60 mph along with 2–5 inches of snow.
It's showtime, let the storm commence. Roll weather TS. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
