LATEST ON UPPER MIDWEST SNOW
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MAINLY A SHOT AND A MISS...
The clipper type system taking aim at the upper Midwest will bring some precipitation to the region tonight. As earlier advertised, most of it will be rain, although a changeover to snow is possible in the far north. The most likely area for any snow would be my northern tier of counties, paralleling HWY 20. The latest data just in shows a consistent track by the Euro, which is interesting since it was and continues to be the furthest south, with the track near the Quad Cities. The latest GEM (Canadian)has come a bit south and is similar to the Euro. Both show 1 to perhaps 2 inches of slushy wet snow across the far north.
The HRRR, and 3k NAM, which were the furthers north have inched further south and are pretty close to what the GFS depicts with the surface low tracking close to Maquoketa. This 35-40 mile spread is likely going to make the difference between a wet snow of an inch or two near HWY 20 or little if any, especially south of HWY 30.
For my money, less than 12 hours before rain begins (more like 8 in the NW), I prefer the slightly further track south of the Euro with minimal deepening. At the very least, a compromise. I also like its lower overall precipitation totals. Therefore, I will continue on with the idea that light (to at times moderate rain in the north) spreads across the region later this evening and after midnight in the south. Snow may mix in with the rain at times near HWY 20 before transitioning to all snow around 1 or 2:00am. Again, it's my tier of counties close to HWY 20 on northward into NE Iowa and southern Wisconsin that could see 1–2 inches of slushy snow. Much of this would likely be found on grassy and elevated surfaces with existing warm road temperatures.
I will also add, there is no assurance this will happen, particularly if the GFS and associated CAMS pan out with a more northerly track. For those of you in the south, just a period of light rain is expected. Much of the area south of HWY 30 may not see any snow at all.
Here is what the latest guidance is indicating for snowfall. These are not forecasts, just raw model output from various model sources that we use to formulate forecasts. Again, you can see the sharp cut-off to the snow band on the EURO and GEM. near and just south of HWY 20. That little sliver in the far northern part of my area is where uncertainty is high regarding snow accumulations.
The EURO
The GEM
The GFS
The HRRR
The 12k NAM
The 3k NAM
The SREF ensemble mean
This is the HRRR showing some of that snow trying to mix in up north around 1:00am.
Currently, winter weather advisories are out for much of southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin. These could be extended a bit further south closer to HWY 20 if a more southerly track evolves. The bottom line is conditions will be worse for our neighbors up north where travel will become hazardous overnight.
The whole system will be out of the region by daybreak. With temperatures near or slightly above freezing, any snow is likely to quickly melt and travel impacts, even in my northernmost counties, should be minimal if any. That's the latest and greatest for now. Roll weather...TS Additionally with my recent health issues, I very much need to reach my fund-raising goals. To keep things as they are, I'm in humble need of your donation to the site more than ever. If you use it and find value in it, please consider a contribution. Thanks to you who have already helped the cause!
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