KEEP THE JACKET HANDY

Friday brought a dreary end to the work week, with cool temperatures and occasional light rain or sprinkles. The most concentrated area of heavier showers, (as expected) was over southeast Iowa where a few spots may have picked up 1/4 of an inch. Many spots never even got out of the upper 40s for highs. A dismal start to the weekend!

As poor as it was here, it was far worse for our neighbors to the south. Another round of tornadoes and severe weather rocked parts of NE Texas, Arkansas, SE Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Of even greater concern was the flash flooding associated with a historic rain event that's still in progress. Over the past 2 days, up to a foot of rain has fallen in spots.

Below, the GFS shows another 5–10 inches of rain possible before the pattern breaks down.

The event is being driven by a deep trough at 500mb centered over New Mexico. It's virtually stationary, pumping deep tropical moisture into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Disturbances continue to lift northeast ahead of the energy generating storms and excessive rains over the same general area. Little change is expected Saturday as the storm awaits a kicker that you can see diving southward into Montana. Eventually that ejects the dynamics northeast, but not before another rough day of weather Saturday. Fortunately for my area, the precipitation shield should be just far enough east to provide a dry but mostly cloudy day locally.

As of Friday night, numerous flash flood emergencies were in effect to our south, along with rescues and evacuations. Catastrophic, and historic flooding is expected according to NWS hydrologists through Saturday. A high risk excessive rainfall outlook has been issued by the WPC for Saturday.

Very bad news considering all the counties in green below are already experiencing flash flooding Friday night.

Storm chaser Jordan Hall took this incredible picture of a lightning strike by way of a drone. Well done!

It's not surprising some locations are seeing 2-3 inch per hour rainfall rates due to the extreme levels of moisture and instability. That's evident in the amount of lightning strikes showing up at the time I write this post Friday night. The concentrated line highlights where convergence is maximized along the stationary front. Repeated cells continue to form and move northeast over the same general area, like trains on a track. That's known as training, a common denominator in almost all major flash flooding events.

This story is far from over, and I'm concerned the situation gets even worse Saturday, with potentially deadly consequences. Fingers crossed for those impacted.

COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY...

The flooding situation, to the southeast, is alleviated Sunday by a pattern change that buckles the jet from its current SW flow to one dominated by NW flow. Over the next 5 days, these are the expected temperature departures through April 9th off the EURO.

These are the projected highs on the EURO for the Quad Cities. Notice that over the next week, 4 days remain in the 40s, with the coldest day coming Tuesday. Some spots, especially in the north, could see some snow showers Monday afternoon thanks to 850 temperatures (a mile up) that could drop to -11C. In theory, that creates the instability aloft necessary to power hit-and-miss showers.

That's all for now, have a good weekend despite less than perfect conditions. Roll weather...TS