JUST A BIT DAMP...

After a short break, rain has once again returned to the forecast as we enter into a prolonged period of unsettled weather. In fact, virtually every day the next week has at least a chance of rain. There will be plenty of dry hours and the rain won't be excessive, but it is quite unusual to have 7 or more consecutive days with a rain threat in July.

Since June 1st, I've had more than 9 inches of rain at my place in Dubuque. From here into NW Iowa, 9 to nearly 18 inches of rain has fallen, (not including what fell Thursday).

That's 5 to 13 more inches more than normal.

These torrential downpours have been common place around the central Midwest and because of it, the risk of flash flooding is significantly high. This graphic shows the estimated 3-hour rainfall totals necessary to cause flash flooding. The dark pinks and blues depict widespread areas where the guidance is under 2 inches, in some spots under an inch. That is very low for July and indicates the ground is quite saturated and susceptible to flash flooding from any sort of heavy rain. It reminds me a bit of 2008 and 1993.

Under these saturated conditions, it is unfortunate to have the potential for rain so frequently the next week. This particular situation is caused by a system that digs a pronounced trough into the Midwest. It's reinforced multiple times in coming days and looks like this at 500mb Tuesday. It's anomalously deep and far south, for July 9th.

It certainly eliminates the possibility of any serious heat the next week. Furthermore, it also draws cool air aloft into the center of the nation. With daytime surface warming in the morning below the cool air above, instability grows during the afternoon. Random showers and a few thunderstorms are likely in this type of set-up. Due to the persistence of the troughs position, the afternoon shower threat is with us through at least next Thursday. Again, there will be many dry hours until enough instability exists to pop storms. Then it's hit-and-miss time for any showers and storms that develop when the convective temperature is realized. The spotty nature of the rains means amounts are likely to vary considerably from location to location. Additionally, the showers are generally brief, and the rain goes just as fast as it came.

This type of set up is not as volatile as the ring of fire structure that can produce massive storm clusters (MCS's) which can produce excessive rains and severe weather. In this pattern, the forcing is broad which limits the strength of storms and the amount of rain they can generate. However, you can get brief downpours, and over several days that slowly but surely can add up. Here's what models are indicating for rainfall totals the next 7 days (through next Thursday). There's actually pretty good consistency on amounts and location for a week-long forecast.

The EURO

The GFS

The Weather Prediction Center.

These are the 7-day rain departures shown on the EURO.

Something I mentioned yesterday that still holds true today is the fact the air mass changes little in terms of moisture content and temperatures over the next week. Highs stay in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows remain in the 60s. On this EURO meteogram for the Quad Cities, notice highs vary by only 5 degrees over an 8-day stretch from 77-82. They are also several degrees cooler than normal.

Beyond next week, the upper level flow turns more zonal and retreats northward. That implies warm, humid weather returns in the long range, more typical of mid-July. Hopefully that also reduces the potential for such regular rain producing systems. More in that in coming days. Meantime, it's Friday. Enjoy and roll weather...TS

SPEND SOME TIME WITH US. MY AIRBNB IS A MOST LOVED GUEST FAVORITE!

AIRBNB has rated my renovated church in Galena A GUEST FAVORITE, A MOST LOVED home according to visitors. Check out some of our reviews and get in on the flexible deals we have available below.

Christa-Monument, Colorado

The Little White Church is amazing!!!! Pictures do not do it justice. I would absolutely recommend it to my friends and family. It is just so unique. Carolyn is an amazing host and super responsive. I would give our experience 6 out of 5 stars if I could.

Phillip-Queensland, Australia

Amazing and thoughtful renovation. Stayed in a piece of history. Great location and modern amenities. Would stay again!

Jill

The Little White Church is beautiful. The decorations are perfect, and it was redone with impeccable taste. Carolyn was a great host.

Brent

Such a gem. Relaxing in the countryside in a historic church that was beautifully decorated and recently renovated was exactly what we experienced. Everyone loved our stay, and we will be back!!!

Leigh

Beautiful and unique. We were all captivated by the adorable chapel turned AIRBNB

Jenny-Frisco, Texas

It was a magical place for our family to celebrate Christmas!

Kelly

What a gem! The Little White Church exceeded our expectations. It was the perfect spot to meet up with another couple to relax and explore nearby Galena. We enjoyed the beautiful great room with its fireplace and amazing views of the rolling countryside. (The photos simply can't do it justice). The charming church/home was quiet, well appointed and clean. And Carolyn was proactive with instructions and a terrific communicator. We will definitely be back!

John

Absolutely incredible! Loved the tranquility and the beautiful views. The decor was so inviting. AND the bell tower works!! Would 100% stay here again!

Tori-Cedar Falls

This place is so beautiful! Carolyn and Terry were so thoughtful and kind to let us have our wedding at the church. They even provided extra supplies in case we needed them. The private garden worked perfectly for our ceremony, and the backyard easily fit our reception needs. Not to mention, the balconies make perfect photo spots! My husband and I recommend the Little White Church and will be telling all our friends about it.

Mahesh-Buffalo Grove

Carolyn was a great host, very flexible! The place is super clean, spacious with a private backyard overlooking the fields and bluffs! We spent a lot of time on the deck. Great kitchen, clean bedrooms and baths. Highly recommend the place.

William

Great place. Great host. Will definitely book again and tell our friends.

Miriam

Carolyn and Terry's place is BEAUTIFUL! The Little White Church is a wonderful place, way more beautiful than the pictures. Everything is brand new and extremely clean. Staying at the church was a unique experience and I would love to come back soon. I strongly recommend the place if you are looking for a 5-star location!

Vanessa-Chicago

Carolyn was great! Absolutely beautiful place! I would not hesitate to go back. We spent Thanksgiving and the next night. Very well stocked and above and beyond with extras included. Thank you!

MAKE US AN OFFER...

What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Let us assist in finding a time and price that works for you. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb

Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320. Or carolynswettstone@yahoo.com

Now that it's vacation season, there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.

Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5-star AIRBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.

Again, we are an AIRBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!

Hope to see you soon,

Terry and Carolyn

7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA

1. It’s Steeped In History

2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America

3. The Restaurants Are Amazing

4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors

5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

7. Did I Mention The Shopping?