IT'S CHRISTMAS...
Merry Christmas everybody. May the treasures of hope, goodwill, and cheer that punctuate the day fill your world all year long! T. Swails
SEND SUN SANTA...
Every once in a while, we get into a rut where a weather pattern locks in, containing low level moisture and a stout temperature inversion. In other words, readings are actually warmer aloft than at the surface, (the opposite of what we typically see). That is a tried and true recipe for low clouds, drizzle and fog. When you add some forcing to the mix, that can even get you some rain. That's the scenario we are looking at through at least Saturday and potentially Sunday. Short term, I don't see much in the way of rain through the day Thursday. That's not to say there won't be a shower or some periods of drizzle, it's just that amounts will be minimal and mainly confined to the SE half of my area.
Thursday night and into Saturday, a couple chunks of energy streak northeast in the SW flow that bring more organized showers and what should be periods of light to moderate rain. That, combined with a heavy low overcast and periods of fog, will make for a very dreary stretch of post holiday weather. On the positive ledger, we will be on the mild side of the storm track, with temperatures expected to be rather balmy by late December standards. These are the mean 7-day temperature departures for the next 7 days on the EURO. 12–14 degrees above normal per day is quite impressive over a week-long period!
What's shown in Canada is even more impressive. Some of the departures are up to 35 degrees above average over the next 7 days. For goodness’ sake!
If nothing else, we have warmth on our side, even if it won't be pretty. The GFS shows the toasty numbers in the Quad Cities holding through January 2nd.
How much rain occurs Thursday night-Saturday is still questionable. The GFS remains very aggressive, showing this for amounts.
The EURO is about half that, and I still think the lighter amounts it shows are more likely unless there is a more organized system than currently shown. That said, there is no shortage of moisture for higher totals.
HOLIDAY SALE AT OUR GALENA AIRBNB (CLICK BANNER)
40% off a weekend or weekday stay in December-February. Call or text Carolyn now at 563 676 3320
A NEW YEAR FLIP
Early in the new year, the EURO indicates a two stage cool-down, with the potential for some Arctic air late in the 2-week period coming up. Note the high of 7 degrees January 8th.
That would be the consequence of the MJO taking a stroll through phase 8.
With the addition of cold air into the pattern, after the first week of January (and beyond) the month has the potential to be snowier. The GFS extended shows this for snow through January 28th.
The EURO extended control through February 8th, shows this for total snow. Not only are these some healthy numbers, they go deep into the south. Snow that far into Dixie indicates a deep and prolonged period of cold air.
To be clear, what stands out to me are the trends, not the actual numbers. No way models can actually predict them with accuracy at this distance. However, when you consider the teleconnections I'm seeing, including the MJO, Arctic Oscillation, and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), there's some real potential on the table for cold temperatures. The big unknown is the position of the storm track and our proximity to snow making systems. I will be quite disappointed if we don't get at least one good snow in January. Time will tell.
So that is where I will leave it for now on a late Christmas Eve night. I think I hear sleigh bells in the distance, which means I have to get to sleep fast if I want that Red Ryder thermometer BB gun. It has a digital thermometer built into the barrel and an app that delivers it to my phone. All I need to do is be careful not to shoot my eye out! Merry Christmas and roll weather...TS
