IS THIS HEAVEN, NO IT'S IOWA...

My first full day back in Iowa was certainly one to remember. I walked the shores of the Mississippi under blue skies and a temperature of 83 degrees. The crab trees were blooming and the grass was emerald green. It truly was a heavenly day, no matter where you were in my part of the Midwest.

This picture was taken a block from my place which is higher up on the bluff. I can see the river from every room. Plenty of barges traveling the river today. Which, by the way is not flooding. This is the first time in several springs that's not been an issue.

Below is the original headquarters of the American Pickers which has had a steady supply of visitors since I've been around. My house is just to the right of the picture. My bedroom window looks down into the place.

I'm hoping to meet up with Mike and Frank this summer. I need an antique metal thermometer and maybe a wind vane for the place I'm renovating. Something like this would work just fine in terms of a thermometer.

Anyway, the 1300 mile journey from Maine to Iowa is over but not the fun. The two PODS with our belongings do not arrive until mid-day and the guys we hired to help us unload, "Quad City Dudes" do not arrive until Wednesday. That means two more nights of sleeping on the hard wood floors and plenty of tough work ahead. We are getting there. The City manager of Le Claire, Chris Paul gave me a couple of sweet orange cones to put out in front of the place to to secure the spots for the PODS. I'm feeling quite official.

Getting back to weather, the warmth of Monday was really dramatic compared to what was found the day before. Many places were 30-35 degrees warmer than just 24 hours earlier.

These were the actual late day temperatures Monday. A dramatically cooler scenario just to our north but fabulous down here.

We'll get a couple more mild days out of this set up before some late week changes. Here's what the HRRR is cooking up for potential highs today. Make no mistake about it we are in for another banner day. With decent mixing highs could reach the mid 80s in spots and records might be approached in the Quad Cities and Dubuque if maximum heating potential is reached. The record in Moline is 86 and in Dubuque it's 82, both set in 1981.

Tuesday

Wednesday the EURO turns cooler but is still not too shabby.

The next order of business is rain potential Tuesday night and Wednesday. Both major models are pretty quiet through Tuesday night although the 12k NAM shows a late night threat for some scattered showers and storms in spots. Well keep an eye on it with low confidence for now.

Wednesday and perhaps Wednesday night chances are better for rain, especially if you believe the GFS. It's much further north with a wave and its associated rain than the EURO. You can see the difference between the two models below.

The GFS surface and precipitation pattern Wednesday evening.

The EURO for the same period.

The northward placement of the GFS results in heavier rainfall in much of my area. Take a look.

The GFS total rainfall.

The EURO rainfall for the same period.

Personally, I prefer the more southern solution of the EURO which would keep totals lower and chances highest over the southern half of my area. That keeps the severe threat further south Wednesday while Tuesday as shown below, the action is over the southern Plains. We get out of it clean.

After a late week cool-down, warmer weather should be right back with us for the coming weekend. Right now 70s are looking like a good bet and rain prospects appear low. That's a keeper!

Last but not least, I'm so thrilled to be back home with the people I know and love. There is no place I would rather be and you can take that to the bank! Roll weather...TS