IS THAT LIGHT I SPIE...
86% THERE, JUST A LITTLE MORE HELP
MY FUNDRAISER CONTINUES....
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LIGHT AT THE END OF A LONG, DARK TUNNEL......
As you can see, the last 7 days have not been warm ones around the Plains and Midwest. Average daily temperatures, have been running 16–18 degrees below normal over that week long period.
This is a microcosm of a manic winter that has been a series of temperature swings from mild to cold. February alone is a classic example. Examining Cedar Rapids, you can see how the month shot out of the gate with a 54 degree high the 2nd. A couple of weeks later, the high was 1 and ensuing lows were well below zero, with 14 below registered the 18th. With wind chills hitting 35 below, the feel like range from +54 to -35, was 89 degrees!
The roller coaster has reached its base and is about to go up again. Below you can see the GFS projects another big surge in temperatures the remaining 8 days of the month with highs climbing back into the 40s and 50s. If by some miraculous chance Cedar Rapids would reach 58 on the 28th (as shown), February's feel like range would end up at 93 degrees. Just another month in paradise.
I also thought a comparison to last February was in order. For those who don't remember, last February was quite gentle, with little snow and very mild temperatures. At the bottom left of the graphic, you can see the average February low for Dubuque in 2025 compared to 2024. This year it's 8.7 degrees compared to 24.9 in 2024, a difference of 17.2 degrees colder.
The meteograms of the EURO and GFS are in agreement this jump in temperatures, (which gets us above freezing in all areas by Sunday), should be with us through the end of February. After that, the GFS has a noticeably colder look going into the first week of March.
The GFS
The EURO does not see the handoff to cold at the start of March.
The GFS has a chance of verifying colder because it shows the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) digging into negative phases just after the first. That implies a ridge going up over the Pacific NW and Alaska that would reintroduce the potential for polar air masses to get back into the pattern, hence its colder temperatures.
The EURO is a little slower and less aggressive, but still shows the dip into the negative EPO phase. If nothing else, I expect temperatures to return to a more seasonal brand of cold in early March.
Just beyond early March, the stratosphere is showing some signals it may be headed for another stratwarm, a precursor to another cold shot in mid-March. Here is the 30mb heights today.
The 26th, you can see the vortex stretches and splits into 2 pieces.
From a temperature standpoint, you can see how cold readings are now in the polar regions. This is at 10mb, the highest coldest level of the atmosphere.
March 7th, the EURO shows dramatic warming at 10mb and what looks to be a stratospheric warming event. When it warms at high levels of the Arctic, that forces the cold that typically resides there to be displaced, often times into the mid-latitudes. Stratwarms are very difficult forces to harness and forecast. However, this last one certainly did its thing here in the Midwest the past week. Close attention will be paid to the development of this phenomena.
Meantime, one more very chilly day is on tap before it's up, up, and away. There's light at the end of the tunnel. Speaking of light, my post on my daughter Eden's 21st birthday Thursday had 600 likes and more than 200 comments. She was thrilled by all the well-wishes and talk of her beauty etc. I think the size of her head increased substantially. Seriously, I want to thank all of you who took valuable time to extend a wish or a comment. It made her big day even more special, and I can't thank you guys enough! Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
