IS THAT ALL THERE IS...
The rain machine was up and running in parts of the Midwest Wednesday but the impacts were minimal in all but my far southwestern counties. The rest of us dealt with clouds and plenty of humidity. Fortunately temperatures were mainly in the 70s which kept the heat index relatively in check.
As for rain, amounts of an inch or more fell south of a line from Des Moines and Ottumwa to Keokuk and points southeast. Doppler indicates some spots in NC Missouri may have picked up 8-10" plus over the past 48 hours.
There's still enough moisture and instability for what could be some isolated showers Thursday and Friday but these would be very spotty and brief. Most areas will remain dry with rain chances less than 20%. Temperatures and humidity will be at seasonal levels. Actual highs generally in the mid to perhaps upper 80s.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS...
Saturday a complex interaction of energy allows an upper air low to dig southeast out of the northern Plains. In advance of the system warm air advection increases on the nose of a renewed low level jet. Models are attempting to kick up some showers and storms with that process, especially Saturday night and Sunday morning. Its a bit early to predict the scope of coverage but at least scattered activity is likely. Highs Saturday will reach the mid 80s, maybe a bit warmer in the south if there's more sunshine that is currently anticipated.
At least for now Sunday is the day to watch for organized thunderstorms and what could be a severe weather threat late Sunday afternoon and evening. This is going to be contingent on the timing of the system which looks optimal on the EURO. The set-up involves deep moisture with water vapor (PWAT's) back up around 2.00 inches late in the day.
With highs of 85-90, heat index values could reach the mid 90s across my southern counties.
That would produce a lot of convective energy/instability which is evident on the EURO with CAPE of 2,500 to 4,000j/kg.
There's plenty of dynamic forcing shown with a deepening surface low generating backed surface flow and strong potential 0-6km shear.
The K index is high indicating a strong potential for storms.
The lightning flash density product on the EURO indicates significant convection with plenty of lightning.
Once again, it's very early in the game but but some strong signals are there for severe weather in some part of the immediate region late Sunday if everything comes together. I do want to stress that mesoscale details critical to the overall environment will not be known for at least a couple days so confidence is low as to where the most active storms will end up developing.
After the cold front passes Sunday evening wrap around clouds and instability showers may linger into Monday on a widely scattered basis. Additionally NW flow really amplifies next week bringing in a notable cooling trend for the duration of next week. The Climate Prediction Center shows a high likelihood of below normal temperatures during the period August 10-16th. I totally agree.
With that, I will sign off wishing you an outstanding and productive day. Roll weather...TS
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