IN THE THICK OF IT...
It looks like our weather the next few days is going to get into the thick of it, by that I mean we'll deal with the kind of humidity you can slice. A heat dome is expanding, and the ring of fire will aim an active MCS thunderstorm track at this general area. Those factors are a given, what isn't is when and where storms are going to fire. Any rain cooled air or clouds from storm remnants will have major implications on the amount of heating that takes place. For now, there is enough confidence in sufficient warmth and humidity for the NWS to issue a heat advisory for the southern third of my area Tuesday. The advisory is out from 1:00pm until 9:00pm for heat advisories of up to 105-110 degrees.
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I will caution that models such as the HRRR and EURO develop an MCS overnight that tracks SE across the SW half of my area Tuesday. Should that happen, temperatures would be significantly reduced and would not come close to advisory levels in any part of my area due to clouds and even rain in some parts of the SW. These are the heat index values the EURO shows at 3:00pm.
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The GFS removes the rain and cloud debris much sooner, allowing rapid heating and heat index values of 109 in Keokuk and 107 in Burlington. What that means is the feel like temperature in Keokuk is 33 degrees warmer on the GFS than the EURO at 3:00pm Tuesday. A range that extreme means there is significant potential for a bust, and I'm a bit leery of the kind of heat the GFS is promoting. I suspect we end up somewhere in the middle, but believe me when I tell you, It's a tough call in the south. We won't have a good handle on the outcome until mid-Tuesday morning, when cloud and storm trends are clearer.
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Similar challenges exist once again Wednesday and Thursday but more so in the northern half of my area. There, model agreement is consistent on heat index values being confined to the mid 90s. South of I-80, the values are substantially higher in the 100-105 degree range. No matter what the heat index, we'll be in the thick of the humidity, and it's going to be very muggy across the board.
Being on the NE periphery of the heat places my area in a vulnerable spot for thunderstorm complexes known as mesoscale convective systems. These form along the edge of the heat dome, where there is just enough cool air to bust any capping that is prevalent deeper into the heat. These ridge riders will work on the high CAPE
environment the heat and humidity provides firing with regularity, often at night when the low level jet is stronger and capping weaker. CAPE is high locally Wednesday but is monumental in central Iowa where it reaches over 7500 j/kg. on the EURO. That is tremendous potential energy if any storm can fire in that region.
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Not only could there be severe storms, moisture is highly tropical and pooled, leading to major instability. As early as noon Tuesday, the EURO below shows available water vapor of 1.75 to 2.45 inches across my area. That's the type of air mass that will yield torrential downpours, heavy rains, and often flash flooding if storms can fire within it. These high water vapor values exist into Thursday. It's hard to predict the precise location of individual storms, but it is a problematic set-up that I expect will cause issues in one or more locations until the pattern breaks late week.
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The Weather Prediction Center does have parts of my area in slight risk outlook for excessive rains Tuesday and Wednesday.
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Here's what models are suggesting for rainfall the rest of the week. They often underestimate the potential in this type of situation and could be significantly low where multiple storm clusters end up occurring.
The EURO
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_d0fdc074a48947f29187b632b87f0ca1~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_980,h_805,al_c,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/0d40d5_d0fdc074a48947f29187b632b87f0ca1~mv2.png)
The GFS
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_c09cd5ecf36346d09ed30c6c3ebb1a4e~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_980,h_805,al_c,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/0d40d5_c09cd5ecf36346d09ed30c6c3ebb1a4e~mv2.png)
The WPC
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_5cdb67e26fee46a088b81e1aefb22ce1~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_980,h_805,al_c,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/0d40d5_5cdb67e26fee46a088b81e1aefb22ce1~mv2.png)
The Storm Prediction Center does have my area in a slight risk level 2 of 5 severe weather outlook Tuesday. Wednesday is likely to see strong storms too in some part of the central Midwest. Damaging wind would be the primary severe threat.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_d3eb5f8a0e5443c5989eb072f2ecaf87~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_980,h_735,al_c,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/0d40d5_d3eb5f8a0e5443c5989eb072f2ecaf87~mv2.png)
It does appear this challenging and potentially impactful weather will pass by the end of the week. The first weekend of August looks rather warm but dry, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Roll weather...TS.
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