IN LIKE A LAMB, BAA HUMBUG....
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USHERING IN FEBRUARY...
The rain came, and the rain went Friday, and in some spots it was impressive. On this graphic showing Doppler rain estimates, you can see a corridor of heavy rain 1.00 to 1.50 inches running from Centerville to the Quad Cities and on to Chicago. You can also see that once you got north of a line from Cedar Rapids to Rockford, amounts tapered off dramatically, as I expected, with little or nothing in my far northern counties.
Following the event, I have a couple of new records to comment on. First, the 1.41 inches of rain that fell at the Quad Cities International Airport in Moline set a record for January 31st, crushing the old mark of .41 inches set in 1915.
Additionally, the 1.41" was the single largest daily rainfall total in Moline since August 15th, when 2.02 inches was reported. The stretch goes back 168 days or 5 1/2 months! As you can see, going back to September 1st it's been lean times for precipitation, and it was needed. Unfortunately, frost depths around the Quad Cities were pushing 12 inches and a lot of the rain simply ran off. You can't win for losing.
Also, I don't have official confirmation from the NWS yet, but the records indicate that the driest January on record in Dubuque was .11" set in 1925. With a whiff on significant rain here Thursday night, the monthly total will end up at .09 inches, good enough for the all-time driest. That's following a 55 degree high the 30th, also good for a new record high in Dubuque. Hooray for us!
One thing I was surprised about was how fast the system hightailed it out of here Friday. Skies rapidly cleared from NW to SE in the afternoon thanks to an influx of dry air. The morning was an ugly duckling, but the afternoon not so much.
By evening, the last of the clouds had departed, leaving us high and dry under the influence of ridging overnight.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD
Going forward, several disturbances will traverse the Midwest, allowing us to remain on the mild side of the ledger through Wednesday. Saturday itself is more of a nothingburger, with highs relegated to the upper 30s to low 40s. That's still well above normal, but clouds will be in the increase as winds turn strongly to the south. Gusts could hit 25-30 ahead of a clipper streaking towards Minnesota. There's even a chance Saturday night warm advection could spark a rain or snow shower ahead of an advancing warm front in my northern counties. Any precipitation will be light, with amounts .05" or less. A dusting of snow is possible near HWY 20, with mainly rain elsewhere.
Much of Sunday is spent in the warm sector, with the warm front passing ahead of the clipper. Sunshine emerges that combines with a dry W/SW wind to send readings into the 50s. The EURO indicates this for highs, but if we can hold a late day cold front off long enough, I could see readings 2–3 degrees warmer than shown. (The lack of snow cover has caused guidance to underperform recently). I'm all for that. At least for now, the EURO indicates this for highs Sunday.
That produces these afternoon departures. I might need to give the car a much-needed shine.
Monday readings remain in the 50s except up north where a new cold front hits soon enough to halt readings from getting out of the mid 40s there. Tuesday the entire area drops into the range of 32 north to 40 south with east winds and the front well to the south. Beyond that, high pressure looks strong enough to keep the easterly winds and chilly temperatures going Wednesday through Thursday. Some light rain, could pay a visit Wednesday and some snow showers are a possibility Thursday. Nothing that looks problematic at this point. A better chance of snow is shown around Saturday, February 8th
FUN WITH WINTER...
Now, I'm not going to lie, it's early, but I am seeing multiple signs that a more wintry pattern could unfold that promises colder weather and at least hints of snow near or after February 10th. Here's the supporting data. The EPO, WPO, and NAO are all shown entering soundly negative phases, which all analog as cold signals.
The EPO
The NAO
The WPO
Then there's the AO (Arctic Oscillation). It's depicted to dive negative as well. That's a good sign arctic air is attempting to make a move towards the continental U.S.
The MJO, for those that follow it, is comprised of 8 phases dispersed through the Indian Ocean and West Pacific. We are now entering into the Maritime Continent phases of 5 and 6 which are warm. That's why it's been mild and will stay that way for about 5 more days. However, the MJO is on the move and shown steadily marching into 7 and finally phase 8. At that point, the MJO would be situated in the Western Hemisphere and if you want winter and all its trappings, this is where you hope to see it in February.
In summation, I just showed you 5 teleconnections that are all forecast to enter phases that analog strongly to cold temperatures. When they are all in conjunction, that's about as strong a correlation as you can hope for.
Lastly, there's the PNA. Typically, I would not be thrilled to see it so strongly negative, but it's indicative of a west coast trough and SE ridge. What it signals is a baroclinic-based storm track (where warm and cold air in a fight) that's centered on the nation's mid-section. With the 5 teleconnections I mentioned all favoring cold, it argues that when energy ejects out of the western trough (dominated by the -PNA), odds are it will be cold enough on more than one occasion to get snow systems to catch the Midwest in mid-February.
We have not had this configuration all winter due to a predominantly positive PNA (ridge west, trough east) the last 2 months. If this reversal does not get us into a snowier pattern, well, it's time to give up (sometimes it's just not your year). In roughly a week, time will tell us where the dominoes stand and how they are going to fall. That's the way I see it on my crystal ball tonight. Roll weather and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
