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Hi all. I'm still hoping for $828 dollars to reach my fund-raising goal (I'm 94% there). Personally, I'm appealing to those of you who appreciate the reliability, honesty, accuracy, and knowledge of the site, to consider a donation, (especially if it helps with financial decisions related to your business). If you fall into any of these categories and find value in the effort put forth, I humbly ask that you make a $20 dollar investment into this unique and reliable product.
Thanks so much, T. Swails
THE PARTY HAS BEGUN...
The powerhouse cyclone set to impact weather all around the Midwest has begun to make inroads locally. Anonymously high levels of moisture are streaming into the system, whose energy remains centered further west in Oklahoma. It's impossible not to see the moisture surging northward ahead of the sub-tropical jet.
Water vapor of up to an inch or more is shown as far north as Dubuque which is about 300% of normal.
Initially, that is going to lead to showers and a few thunderstorms, some of which are already surging into the region. There is the possibility that some of the stronger updrafts in elevated storms could produce some hail. That is most likely south of I-80. This is going to be a significant rain producer due to ample moisture and potent dynamics. Somewhat lighter amounts are likely over WC Illinois due to the proximity of the storm's dry slot. Here's what models are indicating for rain potential.
The HRRR
The EURO
The GFS
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With a low of 977mb (28.85 inches), wind will be a significant player Wednesday. As the low slowly pulls into SE Wisconsin, pressure will explosively rise as winds become N/NW. This pulls colder air into the area and finally turns the rain to snow (or snow showers in the SE).
A new wrinkle today that is consistent in guidance is the development of a closed 850 low in NC Illinois. This is almost a secondary development and comes after the initial slug of rain swings by Tuesday night. To the NW of the 850 low, intense lift and dynamic cooling occurs that creates a pocket of deformation snow secondary from what falls Tuesday night in parts of Iowa and Minnesota. This new band has the potential to drop 1-3, perhaps 4" of snow where it wraps around the circulation, a very mesoscale type event. The GFS showed this yesterday and was the only model to catch it. I was hesitant about it without support from other models, but there is plenty of that now.
This development greatly increases the chance of accumulating snow in eastern Iowa and perhaps far western Illinois. Some models even wrap the snow SE through WC Illinois and the Quad Cities. So, some locally higher amounts are also possible across the river into western Illinois, where some amounts of 1-2 could occur. This does not happen until mid-morning Wednesday in Iowa, and then gradually spreads into parts of western Illinois in the afternoon.
The HRRR
The 3k NAM
The GFS
The EURO
The 12 NAM
The SREF short range ensemble forecast
Since this is a new development trends are still being set which leaves some questions regarding amounts and placement, but I am expecting rain to redevelop Wednesday morning, change to snow in Iowa where it spreads into Illinois in the afternoon. The potential range of accumulations is now more in the 1-3" category with areas west of the Mississippi more favored for the higher amounts.
Adding some extra concern are the winds, which are likely to reach gusts of 45-55 mph. That would likely produce visibility restrictions, especially in open areas. If we get a couple inches of snow and winds of that caliber, near whiteout conditions are possible at times in rural areas. It would be a good idea to monitor forecasts for that potential Wednesday, as conditions could deteriorate quickly if and when it hits. Some winds gusts shown on the HRRR Wednesday. A high wind warning is out for eastern Iowa where 60mph gusts are possible.
That's all I have for the moment. This is a very potent storm, and additional twists are quite possible. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
