IF IT WEREN'T FOR THE WIND

Several reports of wind damage and tornadoes stretched across the Tri-State area Sunday including wind gusts over 70mph and structural damage.

As discussed on yesterday's post things did trend more severe on Easter Sunday and overall the trend was about what we expected with severe weather pushing to I-80. Wind damage reports spread from southwest Missouri into northern Illinois as a line of severe thunderstorms brought wind gusts of 60-70mph and a few tornadoes.

One of the more significant severe weather reports was this radar-confirmed tornado near Geneseo, Illinois. This twister crossed over I-80 east of the Q.C. metro area. The National Weather Service will likely survey this tornado, and potentially other reports, on Monday.

In Whiteside County, Illinois there were reports of barn damage which could also be tornado damage given radar data.

If it weren't for the severe weather Sunday's rain and storms were otherwise a much-welcomed sight! As of 9 p.m. Sunday evening there was a widespread 1"+ of rainfall across eastern Iowa with some areas pushing over 2". So much rain fell a Flash Flood Warning was issued for the Cedar Rapids metro area due to reports of street flooding. The top report as of this writing was 2.32" near Marion, Iowa and there will likely be higher reports once the network of COCORHAS reports come in Monday morning.

The heaviest rain fell over areas that needed it the most across northern Missouri, west central Illinois and eastern Iowa. Moderate Drought conditions are currently in place and the heavy rains on Easter Sunday likely helped improve this. We will get the updated drought monitor on Thursday morning that will include this bout of heavy rain.

This trend of active weather looks to continue into the end of April and early May. Latest long-range forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center continue to show above-normal precipitation across the Central United States for the Week 3-4 period (May 3-16).

In the shorter term there are a few weak disturbances to watch that could bring some more rain to the area. The first appears likely late-day Tuesday with a weak cold front passage. This appears to be somewhat limited given the scoured moisture behind Sunday's storm system.

Higher rain chances are in place Thursday/Friday with a slightly stronger storm system that will have more moisture to work with. At this point severe weather doesn't appear to be a major concern for the local area but we will continue to watch trends going forward.

The main thing I am watching in the longer term is the April 28-30 time frame (next Monday-Wednesday). The pattern looks to reload with much stronger upper-level support to end the month of April. It is to early to really hone in on timing, area and impacts but that would be the next storm system I am particularly interested in. Analogs are already hinting at 60-70% probabilities of at least one severe weather report from Iowa to north Texas.

That's it for me, have a great week!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart