ICE STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...
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ICE STORM ON THE WAY FOR THE NORTH....
For the past week I've been touting the potential for an ice storm in the northern sections of my area and it now appears the threat is about to become reality. The NWS has issued ice storm warnings for the northern tier of my counties that parallel HWY 20. This area is likely to see significant ice accretions of 1/2 to 1/2 inch. Further south, enough ice, (1/10th of an inch) is expected to warrant winter weather advisories near and north of I-80. The warning and advisory go into effect at 9:00am Wednesday and are scheduled to expire at 6:00pm Thursday.
The icing is not expected to develop until Wednesday morning and could be an issue into the day Thursday. The critical ingredient will be temperatures which are projected to hover near of just below freezing through that period, especially in the area closer to HWY 20. Further south, readings may go just above freezing for a period or two which potentially will alleviate some of the worst conditions near and south of HWY 30. A slight shift in the track could alter the freezing line and its impacts north or south in the coming 24 hours.
A real concern is the projected winds which could reach 35-40 mph out of the east southeast. In spots that do experience significant glazing power outages are possible due to the winds, especially in the far north. Travel is likely to become very hazardous in untreated areas, that includes sidewalks and driveways.
These are the odds of experiencing icing of .01" or greater. The pinks are where those 1/4 to 1/2" accretions are expected Wedneday and Wednesday night.
Here's what models are currently indicating for ice accumulations.
The EURO
The Canadian HRDPS
The 12k NAM
The national model blend.
Further south a moisture rich environment wil foster heavy rain where temperatures remain warmer and above the freezing mark. Thunderstorms are also on the table along with a slight risk of some excessive rains in my far southeastern counties into central Illinois.
Here's what models are suggesting for rain totals for the entire event.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
The Canadian 10k GEM
Issues remain minimal tonight as my area awaits the primary ejection of energy Wednesday out of the southwest. There's likely to be some adjustments to the ice accumulation amounts and positioning as we get a better handle on where the freezing line lays out in coming hours and models. Meantime carry on and roll weather...TS
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