I SPY WITH MY WEATHER EYE
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A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...
For the past week, I've been spying on a pattern change that not only will bring a mild end to January, it encourages precipitation and a more active brand of weather to start February. To lay this out, take a look at this side by side comparison of 500mb charts from today to Saturday.
Notice the red paint bomb (left) centered over the Pacific Northwest. That signifies a high pressure ridge that essentially has dominated the pattern since the beginning of January. It's brought a cold month as well as a dry one. The first 28 days of January, precipitation in Dubuque has amounted to .08 inches.
Come Saturday, the NW ridge and its high pressure has been wiped out and replaced with a healthy upper air low pressure. You can see how the source region of our air has flipped from the NW to the W/SW. That's a significant difference, and an important one for our sensible weather. Short term, it brings a solid period of above normal temperatures. These are the 5-day mean temperature departures on the EURO, Tuesday-Sunday.
Here are the departures shown for Sunday, February 2nd at noon.
The EURO meteogram is depicting these readings over the next week. That works for me.
Even the 6-10 day period (February 2-6) is still running near to slightly above normal.
By this time, the PNA (Pacific North America) is soundly in a negative phase, which keeps the central part of the nation anchored close to the baroclinic boundary, where warm and cold clash. It's also where the storm track is situated and storms can thrive.
You will also notice that the Climate Prediction Center has much of the country with above normal chances of precipitation through the first 10 days of February.
The first system to bring precipitation potential to the Midwest is currently entering southern California. It eventually ejects its energy northeast and appears to be close enough to bring rain chances as early as Thursday afternoon, more likely Thursday night. It's responsible for initiating the West Coast trough that drives the negative phase of the PNA.
Here's what guidance is indicating for precipitation from this disturbance, which is mainly a rain event.
The GFS
The EURO
There is a chance enough cold air wraps into the system at its conclusion to perhaps whip up some wet snow. I currently don't see much, but at this distance I say that with low confidence. Here's what models are suggesting. If it were to happen, it would be very late Thursday night or early Friday.
The EURO
The GFS
Indications are that 2 other systems are possible, one around the 6th and the next near the 10th. All told, totals for whatever falls between now and February 12th currently looks like this.
The EURO
The GFS
The GFS shows 1.65" at the NWS office in Davenport the next 15 days. That's more precipitation than has fallen there than in the last 73 days. We could use it if we could just get the frost out of the ground first.
Some of you plow boys and girls would love to have some snow to push, and I don't think prospects are real promising until we can get some cold air back in the pattern. The weeklies of the EURO show the EPO with a lengthy negative stretch starting around the 14th of February. That means cold air should begin to push, highly increasing snow prospects.
With the negative PNA still intact, the GFS shows this 500mb pattern February 12th. I really like the looks of that for a potentially snowy pattern across the NC part of the nation. The question is, will it happen as shown? Phasing will be the key, (if and where it occurs). You can bet I'll be watching in the days ahead.
Last but not least, I spend an immense amount of time preparing these posts (ask my wife). I enjoy doing it. However, I have real operational costs and a daughter who wants to go to Wisconsin and get her masters. I'm on a fixed income and if I can not get the funds I need in this fund-raiser, I've got to find a paying job. That means the site goes, or is not going to be as in depth and reliable as it currently is. If you like what you see and rely on the content, please consider a donation. Seriously, I'm sad to say the future depends on you. Thanks for your consideration and support over all the years! Roll weather...TS
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