I CAN'T BELIEVE MY EYES

It was white like snow, floated from the sky like snow, even sparkled like snow, and by God, it was snow! I forgot what it looked like. I do not have the official total yet for Dubuque (maybe 1.2"), but not only did we get our first measurable precipitation of January, it was the first day we have had an inch of snow since back on December 17th when 1.7 inches fell. Great excitement here at the ranch.... Note the bullseye and even higher amounts centered on Cedar Rapids.

The system was what I would classify as somewhat rogue. It was a combination of warm air advection followed by an embedded upper air disturbance within the mean trough. There was no classic surface low to pin it on. It not only challenged models, it challenged expectations. Look what models showed last night, just a few hours before snow began falling in my northwest counties. Amounts on 3 of the 4 models were generally an inch or less. The only model to really see some higher potential was the 3k NAM

The EURO

The GFS

The HRRR failed miserably.

Here's the 3k NAM, the best of the bunch. Around the Cedar Rapids metro area, where up to 4.0 inches fell in Hiawatha, it had no more than 2.0 inches. Still far better than the EURO and GFS, which showed 0.5 and 1.1 inches respectively. Obviously, the system over performed.

Now that we have this little bugger out of the way, we have another burst of cold air to fight through. With some snow on the ground, temperatures will be colder Thursday and Friday than was previously shown. In fact, readings will only rise a few degrees all day, meaning highs that range from 13 north to about 18 in the far south.

Wind chills will again be a factor, especially early in the day, when the GFS shows blustery NW winds creating wind chills of 5 to 10 below. Some minor blowing snow is likely in open areas where an inch or more of powder fell.

Finally, Friday morning we bottom out with actual low temperatures slipping near or even a bit below zero north of Interstate 80.

If we go below zero in Dubuque Thursday night, which I expect, that will be the 6th time this month with a low temperature of zero or below. What a change since that 51 degree high back on the 17th.

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By the way, before I proceed, something so remarkable happened yesterday that I must remark on it. A freak snowstorm dumped heavy snow and ice on the deep south from Houston, Texas to Jacksonville, Florida.

Some parts of New Orleans measured more than 10". Some sources say this was as bad a winter storm as the great white-out of February 15th, 1895 (nearly 130 years ago). Below you can see a picture taken Tuesday in the French Quarter when snow was at its peak.

This picture was taken in New Orleans following the 1895 storm, which dumped about a foot. New Orleans now has more snow in a single day than any place in my area for the entire winter!

The long range aspect of the forecast is in pretty good agreement for the next 7 days, showing a warming trend into the 30s with a couple 40s, especially around January 27th to February 2nd. After that, we have a big problem Houston with the GFS running the mild weather into February 7th. The EURO says, no to that, showing another surge of Arctic air crashing the party. While the GFS has a high of 35 February 6th and 41 the 7th, the EURO has a high of 1 below the 6th following a low of -12. Take a look at this dilemma.

Honestly, I'm not sure what the EURO is seeing. Both it and the GFS have the MJO going into phase 7 in early February. The 500mb height anomalies in both a negative and neutral La Niña (we will be in one or the other) show ridging over the east or central United States. That certainly signals mild conditions favoring what the GFS is depicting, at least through February 6th. After that, things get very muddled and uncertain.

Negative ENSO in February

Neutral ENSO in February

Whatever happens, there's plenty of time to see which way the wind is blowing in this scenario. Meantime, we've got a couple cold but dry days ahead to close out the week. Saturday, should be much improved. Until next time, roll weather...TS