HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM

A SIGNIFICANT HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM IS ON THE WAY

What appears to be a high impact winter storm is progressing across the Midwest Monday on its way to the region tonight and Tuesday. Heavy snow and strong winds are expected, with some areas potentially seeing a foot of snow. Major impacts are expected in many spots, which means dangerous driving conditions and perhaps cancellations and closures. That's according to the NWS winter storm severity index below.

Winter storm warnings are in effect for all of my area and the surrounding region tonight through early Wednesday.

Here are the approximate times that snow will begin and end....subject to some minor alterations.

Here is the official snowfall forecast from the NWS. This will be updated shortly, so this is subject to change later this afternoon with heavier amounts southeast likely.

As for weather models, they have been adamant that the snow will be heavy and have even shifted SE so that all of my area seems to have the potential for 8–12 inches of snow, locally higher where convection (thundersnow) and banding set-up. Thundersnow is a mesocale detail that is difficult to pinpoint, but we do have convective allowing models that attempt to find that sweet spot. I have seen some exceptional numbers with amounts in excess of 15 inches. I am reluctant to get too carried away about such high numbers as I just never see them, especially this close to the event. It's going to be interesting to watch things evolve.

Starting with the deterministic models, here's what they are indicating for snowfall. Again, this is not a forecast, just raw data that helps us formulate a forecast.

The EURO

The GFS

The SREF short range model ensembles

Now the convective allowing models, or CAMS.

The 3k NAM

And the big daddy for now the HRRR. This model is run every hour out 18 hours and every 6 hours out 48 hours. This is the new run out 48, and it is off the charts. Again, this is an outlier, but there is a band convectively driven where 18–22 inches is shown from Washington to near Clinton. That is at a 10:1 ratio. I, for one, want to stress I do not expect those types of results, so you should not either. However, it's usually a reliable model so if for some freaky reason it verifies, you saw it here first. Don't count on it.

The storm's energy is currently centered in western Oklahoma, with clouds and precipitation developing far in advance.

Radar shows the precipitation shield slowly but steadily lifting northeast.

With all the snow and wind, there are going to be problems. Ladies and gentlemen, get your plows, snow blowers, and shovels ready. They should get a good work out. I will be back with additional update later today and tonight. Roll weather...TS

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