HEART-WARMING...
It was weird to wake up this morning and see snow on the ground. Honestly, it wasn't much, the grass was still showing, but the official report for Dubuque was 1.3" with a moisture content of .09". By the way, that was the first measurable precipitation of January for me. Here's a satellite view of the narrowband that pretty much by-passed my southern counties with little more than a dusting.
These are the specific amounts as indicated by the NWS.
Here's a contour map showing how localized the event was being focused on EC Iowa and NW Illinois. Note the 4" bullseye in part of Cedar Rapids.
The snow cover resulted in a mighty fresh day, and tonight will play a role in producing sub-zero lows across the north. Here's what the HRRR shows for temperatures early Friday. Some local spots around Cedar Rapids could be as cold as 8 below, where 2–3 inches of snow remains.
Later in the day Friday, a weak disturbance zips towards the upper Midwest that is likely to produce a mixture of sun and clouds. With warm air advection in place due to a southwest breeze, highs should warm into the low to mid 20s, about 10 degrees warmer than Thursday.
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THE WEEKEND...
Saturday, the wave to the north has passed, and we get into more of a westerly flow. Even so, with the snow cover dwindling, most areas will be even warmer than Friday. That means highs in the mid 30s north to about 40 in the south.
Sunday a glancing push of cold air will drop temperatures into the upper 20s to low 30s, making for a crisp day despite plenty of sunshine.
After that there is strong evidence that the EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation) is going to turn positive for a time and that bodes well for a warm-up next week. Here's the 500mb jet stream currently pulling in the sub-zero air that many of us will be feeling early Friday morning. All that red off the NW coast of the nation is high pressure associated with the negative phase of the EPO
Notice what happens by Wednesday of next week. All the bright red in the Gulf of Alaska is replaced by blue indicating pressures are lowering, forcing what's left of the high pressure further east into the northern Rockies. The polar jet is off to the NE of us and downsloping westerly winds are bringing a mild brand of late Janaury weather into the Midwest. A feature to watch though is the upper air low shown over Arizona. That should kick out towards the weekend and could bring precipitation. Yea, how about that!
Anyway, here is the EPO forecast on the EURO showing the flip from negative to positive early next week. That's the mechanism that allows for what will be a relatively mild last week of January ahead.
Here's the long range temperatures of both the EURO and GFS showing the uptick in readings next week.
The EURO
The GFS
After next week, there is much uncertainty regarding what happens with not only temperatures, but precipitation. The GFS does show the EPO going deeply negative around mid-February, ending the mild weather and signaling the return of Arctic air at that time.
Additionally, the EURO shows a moderate system capable of rain or snow around January 31st. Of more interest is the storm, it indicates February 7th or 8th. That's the one that could help open the door to a colder pattern after it passes. It also could be a good snow producer somewhere in the Midwest. I want to make it abundantly clear, I'm not calling for a storm yet. I only mention it in the context that teleconnections signal the Midwest has a good chance of being in the baroclinic zone and right rear quadrant of the jet, the spot to look for in terms of potential storm genesis.
Meantime, it looks like dry weather continues to rule and could do so through most of next week. If we can make it through the rest of January with no measurable rain or snow, the .09" of precipitation would make this the driest January on record in Dubuque. The current driest is .11" in 1925 (100 years ago). It will be close by a day at the most. It sure would be nice to turn this dry and boring pattern around! Meantime, it's heart-warming to know a more moderate brand of weather is coming. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS
