HAVE YOU SEEN JANUARY?
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SO THIS IS JANUARY?
Hey, have you seen January? We still have until the end of the week before the month is over, and it was nowhere to be found Tuesday. With very dry air, no snow cover, and a downsloping westerly wind, highs rocketed into the 50s. Readings were as warm as 61 as far north a Sioux City in NW Iowa. In my area, readings reached as high as 56 in Waterloo, that coming after a low of 19 degrees! It sure looks to me like the month has checked out early. Good riddance! Here's what 5 day daily temperature departures are expected to look like through February 2nd.
On the topic of dry air, which is helping to drive the mild conditions, humidity values in Waterloo at 2 and 3pm Monday the 27th, were under 20 percent. That is exceptionally low for January. In fact, the graphic below, using data going back to 1949, indicates the frequency of humidity readings under 20 percent January 27th is 0.1 percent. We're living in a desert!
The dry weather pattern is also having a huge impact on snow this winter here in the central Midwest. Omaha this winter has had just 1 inch of snow, the least amount on record at this point in January.
Waterloo, going back to the 1890s, has only had 5 years with less snow than this year's 4.30 inches. That puts them in the top 5 percent of the least snowy winters over the last 130 years. For comparison, on the high side, the most ever accumulated through January 27th was 40.50 inches in the winter of 2008-2009. FYI, the NWS in the Quad Cities is currently at just 6.0 inches.
The past 30 days have been miserable for snow in Iowa. Some isolated spots in the southwest have seen up to 25 percent of their average snowfall. Across the north, the numbers are abysmal, more like 2 to 5 percent of the 30-day mean.
These are the seasonal snow accumulations through January 28th. Again, Iowa is not performing well.
Going forward, one thing seems certain, and that's the fact temperatures will remain above normal by at least 10–15 degrees through Sunday and possibly Monday. Wednesday itself will be another dry day, and then we finally get a crack at precipitation. The storm responsible for the wet weather should predominantly be a rain producer and, in most areas but the far south, holds off until Thursday night, as it battles dry air. Eventually, saturation occurs as moisture advection wins out and rain overspreads the region. With the system weakening as it progresses northeast and dry air in its path, there is going to be a very sharp cut-off to the rain in my northern counties. Most models get precipitation to about HWY 20, but not much further. If the dry air is any stronger than anticipated in the north (a real possibility), my northern 2 tiers of counties may end up with little if any rain. I could certainly see that play out. My central and southern counties seem to have the best chance of seeing the more substantial totals. Here's what models are indicating for rain potential.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
The 12K NAM
THE 10K GEM, easily the driest in my northern counties.
Something else to watch late Thursday night or early Friday is enough dynamic cooling to change or mix the rain to snow before it ends. Any change over is going to be difficult to accomplish with marginal temperatures both aloft and at the surface. Models are all over the board with the potential. I doubt any one place will see much, maybe some slushy minor accumulations on grassy areas. However, pinning down a spot is about impossible until we get a more accurate read on thermal parameters and track. At least for now, here's what model guidance is showing for snow, in no particular order. This is all low confidence.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
The 12K NAM, definitely an outlier.
The 10K GEM
If by some weird chance snow does happen, the trend is for somewhere in a band SW to NE, near or just north of I-80. More on where this stands in my next post.
After the showers depart Friday, dry weather is back for Friday night and Saturday. Cooler highs in the mid 30s to near 40 are likely Friday before a bounce back into the 40s Saturday. Saturday night, a clipper could bring a brief rain or snow shower to the northern third of the region before it quickly passes by morning. After that, warm advection begins anew, sending highs into the upper 40s north to the low to mid 50s south on Sunday.
More precipitation is possible the middle of next week, but models vary significantly on where, how much, and what type. I will leave that issue to simmer another day before tackling it in any serious way.
Last but not least, I spend an immense amount of time preparing these posts (ask my wife). I enjoy doing it. However, I have real operational costs and a daughter who wants to go to Wisconsin and get her masters. I'm on a fixed income and if I can not get the funds I need in this fund-raiser, I've got to find a paying job. That means the site goes, or is not going to be as in depth and reliable as it currently is. If you like what you see and rely on the content, please consider a donation. Seriously, I'm sad to say the future depends on you. Thanks for your consideration and support over all the years! Roll weather...TS
