HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Happy New Year, Everybody! Here's to a happy, healthy, love filled year with lots of amazing weather. T. Swails

AN EXPENSIVE YEAR FOR WEATHER

2024 is behind us and nationally, it was a bad one for weather events. According to the Nation Centers for Environmental Information, there were 24 billion-dollar weather and Climate Disasters across the nation.

THE IOWA SUMMARY

From 1980 to 2024 (as of November 1, 2025), there have been 84 confirmed weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each to affect Iowa. These events included 15 drought events, 7 flooding events, 2 freeze events, 57 severe storm events, and 3 winter storm events. The 1980–2023 annual average is 1.8 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2019–2023) is 4.8 events (CPI-adjusted).

Over the past 44 years, the most likely time for a billion dollar weather disaster to occur in Iowa is during April, May, and June. Severe weather, flooding, and drought are the most common types of big dollar disasters.

A DEEP DIVE INTO A COLD PATTERN

Temperatures have turned colder around the region the past 24 hours, following a week when readings were well above normal. These are the North American temperature departures just experienced Dec. 24th through the 31st.

As you can see in the meteogram below for Davenport, readings are now expected to be at or well below normal the next 14 days. A blast of Arctic air with departures 20 to 25 degrees below normal is expected to invade the region January 10th. Sub-zero lows and bitter wind chills are possible around that time.

Regionally, temperatures remain tolerable through Thursday before taking a significant dip this weekend. Highs in the far north may not get out of the upper teens a couple of those days.

From the standpoint of snow and storminess, there are two features I'm watching. One is a compact clipper like disturbance that arrives later Thursday. Models are in agreement that some enhanced forcing sets-up ahead of a weak surface low bound for WC Illinois. The snow band appears narrow and fast moving, with qpf generally less than .15 inches. On the positive side, snow ratios should be at least 15:1 indicating a dry powdery snow. Models are still clustering on the exact track, but most favor my counties south of HWY 30 for accumulations of 1–2 inches (some isolated 3-inch amounts are possible somewhere). Here's what models are currently suggesting for accumulations.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

The 12K NAM

The 10K GEM

The HRRR, an outlier and likely too far north and heavy.

COURTING A MAJOR WINTER STORM...

The passage of the clipper sets the stage for the initial cold air intrusion over the weekend, which will have a say in what appears to be a major snow storm Sunday night and Monday for some part of the central Midwest. The big hurdle for my area will be the depth of cold air and its impact on the storm track. The southern fringe of the cold air is where the baroclinic boundary gets established that will act as the storm track.

Recent trends have dialed in on the idea this boundary will be across southern Missouri into SC Illinois. The ensemble members of the EURO show the plotted locations of the low from each of its individual members. The mean (average solution) takes is near Carbondale, Illinois to near Evansville, Indiana.

For my area, the ideal track for a big snow producer is for the low to track slightly NE of St. Louis. The Carbondale path could still be impactful for my far southern counties, but snow is likely to cut off dramatically north of there. Below you can see the pressure plots of each ensemble member, and there are some that remain significantly further NW. In other words, there is still some room for this to go further north, but that is not the odds on or favored solution.

New Year's Day will be a big day for models. If they have not shifted to the NW, or shown a slight trend to do that, most of my area is just grazed with only the south dealing with any potentially heavy amounts. At least for now, those who do take the brunt of the storm in Missouri and central Illinois could be in for a real dandy. Here are the amounts the EURO and GFS are currently suggesting. These are not final or definitive amounts, just raw model data that is used to establish trends and eventually a snowfall forecast. It is very much subject to change the next 3–4 days. Check out some of the numbers in Missouri and Illinois.

The EURO, some hefty totals, have inched back into the far south. The north is a nothingburger.

The latest GFS is significantly further north. The south gets hit hard. I have my doubts...I need to see this on multiple runs to become a believer.

The GEM, a less reliable model, is somewhat similar to the GFS but not as heavy.

In summation, snow, potentially significant, is still on the table, especially south of I-80. Details should become clearer in the next 24–48 hours. Stay tuned.

MOVING ON TO THE COMING COLD SHOT

It's always been my belief that the cold was going to come in shots with this pattern, and Tuesday's GFS certainly implies a knockout punch January 9th. The 500mb pattern has the polar vortex centered over NC Iowa.

The coldest air relative to average in North America is clustered around the circulation.

850 temperature departures in pink show the frigid air on display over the NC United States.

Closer inspection shows the entire state of Iowa with 850 temperatures (1 mile up) of minus 30-36 degrees C. That is off the charts and I will believe it when I see it.

These are afternoon high temperatures, the 10th.

These are lows which I'm thinking could be significantly colder if by some chance we drop to 850 temps of -30.

Just for kicks, the GFS indicates wind chills to 61 below near Minot, North Dakota the morning of January 10th! We are shown closer to 30-35 below.

The above depiction by the GFS is most likely a worst case scenario, and I'm hesitant about its validity. Whatever, it's a trend we hope not to see continue in coming runs. There is no doubt that cold air is in our future, along with some snow (less confidence in that element regarding amounts). Models continue to struggle with this very energetic pattern ahead and are still trying to adapt and adjust. Revisions are coming as data becomes better sampled in coming days. That said, whatever happens, the first 2 weeks of 2025 are going to get off to a wintry start for the majority of the central Midwest. Happy New Year and roll weather...TS