FROSTY'S FOR EVERYONE

We just can't crack the dry weather nut, but we have temporarily moved from above normal temperatures to ones that are actual below that threshold. In fact, readings have cooled so much that the first widespread frost and freeze of the fall is on the table.

Overnight, many of us already got a taste of things to come, with lows in the 30s and some frost on the pumpkins. However, the real show is likely Wednesday morning when the combination of clear skies, lights winds, and dry air allows for maximum radiational cooling. Freeze warnings are in effect for the entire area (and much of the central Midwest) Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

A freeze warning indicates a prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures are expected that could kill or damage sensitive crops and vegetation that are not protected. In this case, lows of 25 to 30 are currently anticipated. The GFS shows this for lows.

The hi-res CAMS are even colder, with the 3k NAM depicting lows in the 20s as far south as northern Missouri and WC Illinois.

The HRRR is more in the middle and may be a good compromise solution.

The typical date of the first 32 degree temperature in my area is October 15th north, to November 1st south. Thus, this is about normal for the first freezing reading in the north but a bit ahead of the game in the south.

Here are the earliest fall freezes on record, all generally clustered around September 12-18th.

The latest occurrence of a 32 degree reading is focused more in the range of November 1st-10th. In 1944, Keokuk made it all the way to November 24th before the mercury hit freezing!

This is an interesting graph, it shows the plots of low temperatures from 1960 to 2020 in Scott County (where the Quad Cities is located). From that, the mean date of the first low temperatures of 40 to 20 degrees is shown by the hatched red line. The average first 28 is around November 1st and the average first 20 is closer to November 25th. A number of years, the first 20 did not occur until after December 15th! Can we be that lucky?

For temperatures to get as cold as they are expected Wednesday morning, it usually means highs of 50-55 the previous day. In Tuesday's case, highs in the range of 49-55 are shown on the HRRR, which fits the threshold nicely.

Based on the slow movement of the high pressure producing the chill, it looks as though similar conditions can be expected through Thursday. That implies highs again in the 50s Wednesday with lows again by Thursday morning back in the upper 20s to low 30s...in other words, another round of frosty's for everyone!

WARMING UP, STAYING DRY...

Come Thursday, the high pressure drifts east, allowing southwest winds to return along with upper level ridging. Based on what's been happening in the pattern the past 6 weeks, that should allow another round of well above normal temperatures and little if any precipitation Thursday through next Wednesday. The 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows this for the period ending October 24th. I do question the normal precipitation indicated. That seems high and if it happens, it would come at the very end of the time frame.

The EURO shows this for temperatures through October 24th

The GFS is even a bit warmer, and that may indeed be the case.

On a positive note, the EURO brings some rain to the Midwest towards the second half of the week 2 period ending October 29th.

Were it to verify, those amounts would actually be above normal for the 7-day week 2 period. That would be very welcome. At my place on the east edge of Dubuque, I've had .05 inches of rain going on 46 days. Going back 92 days, I've had measurable rain on just 11 days. My yard is toast!

That's it for this edition, cover those sensitive plants tonight as old Jack Frost is on the hunt! Roll weather...TS

PEOPLE LOVE IT. OUR AIRBNB IS A MOST LOVED GUEST FAVORITE!

ANOTHER 5-STAR REVIEW....thanks Myriam

AIRBNB has rated my renovated church in Galena A GUEST FAVORITE, A MOST LOVED home according to visitors. Check out some of our reviews and get in on the flexible deals we have available below.

Christa-Monument, Colorado

The Little White Church is amazing!!!! Pictures do not do it justice. I would absolutely recommend it to my friends and family. It is just so unique. Carolyn is an amazing host and super responsive. I would give our experience 6 out of 5 stars if I could.

Phillip-Queensland, Australia

Amazing and thoughtful renovation. Stayed in a piece of history. Great location and modern amenities. Would stay again!

Jill

The Little White Church is beautiful. The decorations are perfect, and it was redone with impeccable taste. Carolyn was a great host.

Brent

Such a gem. Relaxing in the countryside in a historic church that was beautifully decorated and recently renovated was exactly what we experienced. Everyone loved our stay, and we will be back!!!

Leigh

Beautiful and unique. We were all captivated by the adorable chapel turned AIRBNB

Jenny-Frisco, Texas

It was a magical place for our family to celebrate Christmas!

Kelly

What a gem! The Little White Church exceeded our expectations. It was the perfect spot to meet up with another couple to relax and explore nearby Galena. We enjoyed the beautiful great room with its fireplace and amazing views of the rolling countryside. (The photos simply can't do it justice). The charming church/home was quiet, well appointed and clean. And Carolyn was proactive with instructions and a terrific communicator. We will definitely be back!

John

Absolutely incredible! Loved the tranquility and the beautiful views. The decor was so inviting. AND the bell tower works!! Would 100% stay here again!

Tori-Cedar Falls

This place is so beautiful! Carolyn and Terry were so thoughtful and kind to let us have our wedding at the church. They even provided extra supplies in case we needed them. The private garden worked perfectly for our ceremony, and the backyard easily fit our reception needs. Not to mention, the balconies make perfect photo spots! My husband and I recommend the Little White Church and will be telling all our friends about it.

Mahesh-Buffalo Grove

Carolyn was a great host, very flexible! The place is super clean, spacious with a private backyard overlooking the fields and bluffs! We spent a lot of time on the deck. Great kitchen, clean bedrooms and baths. Highly recommend the place.

William

Great place. Great host. Will definitely book again and tell our friends.

Miriam

Carolyn and Terry's place is BEAUTIFUL! The Little White Church is a wonderful place, way more beautiful than the pictures. Everything is brand new and extremely clean. Staying at the church was a unique experience and I would love to come back soon. I strongly recommend the place if you are looking for a 5-star location!

Vanessa-Chicago

Carolyn was great! Absolutely beautiful place! I would not hesitate to go back. We spent Thanksgiving and the next night. Very well stocked and above and beyond with extras included. Thank you!

MAKE US AN OFFER...

What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Let us assist in finding a time and price that works for you. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb

Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320. Or carolynswettstone@yahoo.com

Now that it's vacation season, there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.

Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5-star AIRBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.

Again, we are an AIRBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!

Hope to see you soon,

Terry and Carolyn

7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA

1. It’s Steeped In History

2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America

3. The Restaurants Are Amazing

4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors

5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

7. Did I Mention The Shopping?