FROM CHILL TO STORMS...

After a weekend of late season chill we have a risk of severe weather in the Upper Midwest this week. Monday will be a quiet day with slightly warmer temperatures (but still below normal):

Clouds will move in through the day and into Tuesday. Tuesday will be dry to start and temperatures will warm up as a warm front approaches:

As a storm system moves through there will be the chance for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday:

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a marginal and slight risk of severe weather in parts of the Midwest during this time:

Damaging winds and large hail would be the main risks, especially since the storms are coming through overnight. There will be some instability present with this storm - CAPE (convective available potential energy) values will be elevated into Wednesday morning:

Showers and storms will continue into Wednesday:

Temperatures will be mild on Wednesday as the storm moves through:

There will then be a transition to a wintry mix and snow late Wednesday into Thursday.

There are still some uncertainties on how much precipitation falls with this system. Here's a look at totals on the GFS:

And the European:

There does seem to be a trend with heavier rain near/southeast of my area, but some uncertainties on what happens to the north. Regardless it should be a good rain with some lightning and thunder sprinkled in. There will be the potential for some strong storms, particularly in southern Iowa into Missouri.

RK