FRIED CHICKEN! ONE MORE FOR THE ROAD
Thank God I was not a chicken Wednesday. Had I been, I most certainly would have been fried or at least baked! Wow, what a mean day. The heat index (as expected), reached 125 in spots thanks to highs near 100 and dew points in the low 80s. The only time I remember it being worse was July 13th of 1995. That day Cedar Rapids hit 100 with a dew point of 86. That sent the heat index to 131!
That five day stretch of heat in 1995 resulted in the death of 600 people in Chicago with up to 1,000 fatalities when surrounding states are included. The worst conditions were noted on the 12th and 13th.
The weather maps in 1995 looked much like Wednesday's and will be classic analogs for future extreme heat related events.
This years heat event (below), features the heat dome in a similar position as was seen in above in 1995.
Here's some facts on the 1995 heat wave in Chicago.
One of the greatest heat waves in Midwest history occurred during The “Dust Bowl” year of 1936. The first 2 weeks of July 1936 provided the hottest temperatures of that period, including many all-time record highs. The string of hot, dry days was also deadly. Around 90 people are believed to have perished in the Quad Cities. Nationally, around 5000 deaths were associated with the blistering heat wave.
What was different about 1995 and the current heat wave is that in 1936, the dew points were significantly less and the heat index values were generally lower than the actual temperature. Wednesday afternoon it felt about 20 degrees hotter than what the thermometer was reading due to the humidity. I would take the 111 degree high of 1936 over the 123 degree heat index of Wednesday except for one thing, most people in 1936 did not have air conditioning! Imagine 11 consecutive days over 100 without that little perk. It's no wonder there were so many heat related deaths. Here are some highs from around the area during the 1936 siege.
The intensity of the heat was so bad that many slept outdoors where lows near 80 were substantially cooler than the interior of homes with no air conditioning.
In the Quad Cities, the temperature reached 100°F and above for a record eleven consecutive days from July 5 to July 15. People had to cope with the extreme heat without the benefit of air-conditioning. The all-time high and high minimum temperatures for the Quad Cities were recorded on July 14th when the mercury reached a sizzling 111.3°F and only dropped to a low of 84°F. 1936 was (and still is) the warmest summer on record with an average temperature of 78.8 degrees. July of ’36 is also the warmest month with an average temperature of 85 degrees.
The point I'm making is that like it or not, you just experienced one of the hottest feeling days in this areas long weather history. Pat yourself on the back and give the crops some respect as well. Did you know that crops transpire (sweat) just like humans? Mature Iowa corn gives off 50 billion gallons of water daily! That's enough water to fill over 75,750 Olympic size swimming pools!
WELCOME TO THE CENTURY CLUB...
By the way, a number of places in Iowa did reach the century mark Wednesday. Here's a tentative list of those who made to 100. For most of these cities it was the first time in 10-11 years that the 100 degree threshold has been crossed.
Waterloo, 105
Vinton 103
Mason City 101
Cedar Rapids 100
Des Moines 100
Iowa City 100
Oelwein 100
Decorah 100
Independence 100
Marshalltown 100
A RECORD BREAKING DAY
In my area Wednesday, Cedar Rapids set a record with its 100 degree high and Dubuque tied its mark for the date at 97.
ONE MORE FOR THE ROAD
For one more day excessive heat warnings will again be in place as we await a cold front the will approach my northern counties Thursday evening. Stifling conditions are again expected over much of the Mississippi River Valley.
All things considered, I'm not expecting Thursday to be much different than Wednesday. Dew points may be a tad lower keeping heat index values more in the 113-118 range. However, temperatures could actually be a couple degrees hotter due to the slightly drier air meaning 100 degree highs are possible again, this time over most of my area. To be honest, it probably won't feel a lick different to most of you. Here's what the 3k NAM indicates for highs.
Here's what the 3k has for heat index values.
So, after another scorching day Thursday, the focus turns to the position of the cold front and any storm potential associated with it. Most guidance does get the boundary through the region by Friday morning. Even with the front, little if any storm activity is indicated due to the meager forcing and impressive capping inversion. I can't rule out a couple of storms but I'm not optimistic about chances or much in the way of coverage.
Despite the front near the Missouri border Friday morning, its only creeping southeast and cool air advection is rather weak. That is likely to create another steamy day near and south of I-80 where a heat advisory seems warranted. The north will see improvement with cooler temperatures and lower dew points. Here's what the 3k NAM is indicating for highs Friday. Note the difference from north to south.
It's looking more and more likely that the south appears to be in for another nasty day Friday with heat index numbers of 100-105.
One thing that to watch is with moisture pooling in southern Iowa Friday and cooler air aloft arriving towards evening, instability and forcing should be there for scattered storms to fire. Odds are greatest near and south of HWY 34. Here's the simulated radar on the 3k NAM Friday evening.
Further north, dry weather is expected to continue. Bad news for much of my Iowa counties that remain in moderate to severe drought. I'll be interested to see what the new drought outlook shows Thursday after the hot dry weather of recent days.
Finally, much improved weather moves into the central Midwest Saturday and Sunday. Highs will go from the low to mid 80s Saturday to the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday. Dew points steadily lower as well leading to very comfortable conditions on Sunday when they are in the low 50s.
Unfortunately, rain prospects to not look good the next couple of weeks with the GFS showing significant rainfall deficits over much of the central U.S.
Well, that's all for now. Fried, baked, or whatever, this chicken says hang in there, we've got one more burner for the road. Roll weather...TS
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