FINALLY, SIGNS OF "REAL FALL"

Stunning weather was back with us Tuesday as sunny skies, light winds, and pleasant temperatures blanketed the central Midwest. The only glitch was hazy skies, the result of wildfires out west that have been burning for months. I don't have the numbers, but I'm guessing the number of smoke filled days here is greater than 20.

At least in the short term, little change is expected aside from the fact temperatures will get even warmer...again! The warming will be slow but steady, picking up the most steam Friday when SW winds ahead of a cold front focus highs well into the 80s. In fact, dew points are only shown in the 40s, which denotes extremely dry air that is efficiently heated.

Combine that with the increasing pressure gradient and pre-frontal draw of warm air, I would expect highs to be on the top end of guidance in the mid to upper 80s. Once again, that implies the possibility of record highs. Here's what the GFS indicates for maximum temperatures.

These are the temperatures needed to achieve record highs in my local area Friday.

Record High Temperatures:

FRIDAY OCTOBER 11th:

Cedar Rapids: 88/1962

Dubuque: 85/1928

Moline: 88/1962

Burlington: 88/1962

The cold front that precedes the summery warmth Friday passes through the region Friday night. The warm air aloft and meager moisture ahead of it leaves little chance for any much-needed showers or thunderstorm. A dry frontal passage is currently expected. Additionally, the shift to northerly winds begins a cooling trend that today looks to be fairly significant. The cool air looks to lag a bit, allowing highs Saturday to remain on the mild side for one more day. Highs will range from the low 70s north to the low 80s south.

A secondary shot of cool air arrives Saturday night that means business. Brisk NW winds will usher in much colder air that holds highs Sunday to the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south. That's just the tip of the iceberg. By Monday, the GFS shows highs only in the mid to upper 40s. The cold air aloft will drive some clouds and scattered showers as well.

Cold air advection continues with a vengeance Monday night, sending temperatures to what looks like the coldest levels of the year so far. The GFS is really bullish, showing widespread freezing temperatures in the upper 20 to low 30s.

There is also enough wind to produce wind chills in the low to mid 20s. Ugh...

The Climate Prediction Center includes the central and upper Midwest in its hazardous risk outllook October 10-15th due to the potential of frost and freezing temperatures.

Needless to say, next week gets off to a chilly start, with temperatures we haven't experienced in some time. Later next week, readings are likely to rebound with a bout of Indian Summer weather. But there are signs beyond that in November that our fall fling is coming to an end, with our recent summer temperatures packing their bags for the inevitable "winter trip" south.

Look what the EURO 500mb flow looks like November 18th.

That produces temperature departures that at wintry levels.

Notice how the snow pack is shown building. The first graphic shows it October 15th on the EURO control.

Below you can see how snow cover has greatly expanded come November 23rd. What a change if it happens!

Of course, this is all speculative, and it will not end up exactly as shown, even in the best case scenario. However, there is a definitive trend on this run towards winter by mid-November. You may say, well it should look that way at that time of the year, but that's not been the case in recent Novembers. Will this be the year that turns the tide? Time will tell.

MILTON MAKES LANDFALL TODAY AS A MAJOR

The unquestioned focus of Wednesday's weather is tied to the impacts of Milton which is expected to come ashore as a major hurricane Wednesday night. Satellite around 1:30am Wednesday continues to show a very well ventilated storm with a concentric eye wall churning NE toward Florida.

As I write this, Milton remains a powerful category 5 storm after re-strengthening late Tuesday. The 1:00am advisory from the Hurricane Center still had the storm with sustained winds of 160 mph and a central pressure of 914mb (26.99 inches). The latest guidance still suggests the center of the hurricane will make landfall near Tampa Bay Wednesday night.

By the time of landfall, increasing shear is likely to weaken the storm to category 4 strength, maybe even a high-end cat. 3. No matter what, Milton is expected to be a destructive storm for West Florida, particularly around Tampa Bay where high winds, heavy rain, and a storm surge of 10-15 feet could produce extreme devastation.

So, while we enjoy a sensational day in the Midwest, our distant neighbors in Florida take the brunt of another hurricane. Somebody's good weather is always somebody else's bad weather. Hopefully, a major catastrophy is avoided. Roll weather...TS

PEOPLE LOVE IT. OUR AIRBNB IS A MOST LOVED GUEST FAVORITE!

ANOTHER 5-STAR REVIEW....thanks Myriam

AIRBNB has rated my renovated church in Galena A GUEST FAVORITE, A MOST LOVED home according to visitors. Check out some of our reviews and get in on the flexible deals we have available below.

Christa-Monument, Colorado

The Little White Church is amazing!!!! Pictures do not do it justice. I would absolutely recommend it to my friends and family. It is just so unique. Carolyn is an amazing host and super responsive. I would give our experience 6 out of 5 stars if I could.

Phillip-Queensland, Australia

Amazing and thoughtful renovation. Stayed in a piece of history. Great location and modern amenities. Would stay again!

Jill

The Little White Church is beautiful. The decorations are perfect, and it was redone with impeccable taste. Carolyn was a great host.

Brent

Such a gem. Relaxing in the countryside in a historic church that was beautifully decorated and recently renovated was exactly what we experienced. Everyone loved our stay, and we will be back!!!

Leigh

Beautiful and unique. We were all captivated by the adorable chapel turned AIRBNB

Jenny-Frisco, Texas

It was a magical place for our family to celebrate Christmas!

Kelly

What a gem! The Little White Church exceeded our expectations. It was the perfect spot to meet up with another couple to relax and explore nearby Galena. We enjoyed the beautiful great room with its fireplace and amazing views of the rolling countryside. (The photos simply can't do it justice). The charming church/home was quiet, well appointed and clean. And Carolyn was proactive with instructions and a terrific communicator. We will definitely be back!

John

Absolutely incredible! Loved the tranquility and the beautiful views. The decor was so inviting. AND the bell tower works!! Would 100% stay here again!

Tori-Cedar Falls

This place is so beautiful! Carolyn and Terry were so thoughtful and kind to let us have our wedding at the church. They even provided extra supplies in case we needed them. The private garden worked perfectly for our ceremony, and the backyard easily fit our reception needs. Not to mention, the balconies make perfect photo spots! My husband and I recommend the Little White Church and will be telling all our friends about it.

Mahesh-Buffalo Grove

Carolyn was a great host, very flexible! The place is super clean, spacious with a private backyard overlooking the fields and bluffs! We spent a lot of time on the deck. Great kitchen, clean bedrooms and baths. Highly recommend the place.

William

Great place. Great host. Will definitely book again and tell our friends.

Miriam

Carolyn and Terry's place is BEAUTIFUL! The Little White Church is a wonderful place, way more beautiful than the pictures. Everything is brand new and extremely clean. Staying at the church was a unique experience and I would love to come back soon. I strongly recommend the place if you are looking for a 5-star location!

Vanessa-Chicago

Carolyn was great! Absolutely beautiful place! I would not hesitate to go back. We spent Thanksgiving and the next night. Very well stocked and above and beyond with extras included. Thank you!

MAKE US AN OFFER...

What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Let us assist in finding a time and price that works for you. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb

Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320. Or carolynswettstone@yahoo.com

Now that it's vacation season, there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.

Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5-star AIRBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.

Again, we are an AIRBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!

Hope to see you soon,

Terry and Carolyn

7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA

1. It’s Steeped In History

2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America

3. The Restaurants Are Amazing

4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors

5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

7. Did I Mention The Shopping?