FEAST OR FAMINE...

Beginning last Friday night, slow moving thunderstorms endowed with rich tropical moisture rained down on my southern counties. Two particularly intense rounds of storms were noted, the combined effects of which produced rains of 4-10 inches over much of SE Iowa and WC Illinois. The most intense event was late Friday night and early Saturday over far SE Iowa when an MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) cranked out a compact band of excessive rain and a public report of an 11 inch rain total 2 miles NW of Keokuk. The NWS in the Quad Cities produced this snapshot of the Doppler estimates from the event.

The graphic below produced by the Iowa Mesonet shows a rainfall rate of nearly 3 inches per hour in Burlington, Iowa around 3:45 am August 5th. (That's like a waterfall). A 15 minute rainfall rate of 4.6 inches per hour is indicated around 3:15 am. In 2 hours time roughly 5 inches of rain was measured.

Officially, Burlington broke its daily rainfall record for August 5th with a total of 6.14 inches. The previous 24 hour record for the date was 2.03 inches

The extreme rainfall rates and runoff caused the Fox River at Wayland to go from 1.8 feet to 15 feet in 4-5 hours.

This picture shows the extent of the flash flooding early Saturday around Wever, Iowa, the image from the Des Moines County Emergency Management Agency.

Throw in what fell Sunday and Sunday night and the weekend rainfall estimates look like this. Much of the area south of HWY 30 got a good soaking if not a deluge. Up north, the rain was pretty much a no show. At my place in Dubuque all I had was a few sprinkles. The pavement never even got wet. Now that's what I call feast or famine.

The lack of rainfall was certainly disappointing across my northern counties. After making a little dent in the drought in late July, Tuesday will be the 11the consecutive day with no measurable rain. We've lost what we gained in my area.

Going forward I don't see any major rain events ahead but the NW flow that's in place will keep at least my southern counties in play for a glancing blows from showers and storms Wednesday and perhaps again Friday. There's even a slight chances of an isolated shower Tuesday afternoon but these are going to be few and far between if they even make a showing. Highs should be generally in the low 80s.

Wednesday's set-up involves energy digging southeast out of the northern Plains. There should be enough return flow ahead of the system to get the moisture necessary for scattered showers and a few storms. Current indications are that the track of the vorticity (energy) would favor the SW half of the region for the best rain chances...the area that needs the rain the least. A few spots here could see an inch or more if we can scare up some thunderstorms. We'll know much more on the scenario later Tuesday. Here's what models are hinting at for rain totals.

THE EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

The 12k NAM

Thursday weak high pressure will bring a dry and rather pleasant day. Highs should again be mainly in the low 80s with tolerable humidity.

Friday another fast moving disturbance rides the NW flow southeast kicking up some additional showers and storms. The results from this disturbance should be similar to Wednesday's. That means any rain appears scattered and light. There should be many dry hours with highs possibly making it into the mid 80s with 850 temps a few degrees warmer.

After that, it's back to high pressure and what should be dry seasonal August weather for the upcoming weekend.

Just for kicks, the EURO weeklies that extend through the official end of summer are out. The control indicates a fairly dry 46 day period ending September 22nd. Here's are its rainfall departures.

Temperature are shown being near to slightly above normal here in the Midwest. The southern U.S. continues to sizzle with the heat centered over Texas.

That's a wrap for now. Enjoy the fine summer day and roll weather...TS

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