END IT ON A HIGH NOTE...
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ENDING FEBRUARY ON A HIGH NOTE....
Three consecutive days in the 50s in February, that's hard to beat but Cedar Rapids got the job done this year. Tuesday's 56 was especially nice with abundant sunshine and relatively light winds. Spring was definately in the air. What a difference from those sub-zero lows we encountered just a few days ago!
An even better trick would be to make it six days in a row with 50 degree highs and that possibility is certainly on the table in Cedar Rapids. Note the only day that might stop it from happenning is February 27, when the EURO depicts 49 degrees. Otherwise, Wednesday is shown hitting 53 and Friday a resounding 58. Everybody in Cedar Rapids eat an extra biscuit for breakfast Thursday to get that extra degree.
By the way, the entire area gets in on the mild weather through the remainder of the week with Friday looking to be the warmest with upper 50s to low 60s anticipated.
Temperatures like that will be a robust 17-21 degrees above normal. That's the way to end February on a high note.
The one knock on Friday will be the winds. A strong clipper will track through the Upper Great Lakes creating a potent W/NW wind. Here's the tight pressure gradient responsible for the winds.
The EURO shows 10 meter wind gusts greater than 40mph in the north, slightly less in the south. That's a strong signal for gusts of 35-40 on Friday.
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THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND
Following a dry frontal passage Friday, colder weather and a more seasonal brand of temperatures follow for Saturday and Sunday. High should largly remain in the mid to upper 30s with far less wind. Actually, it looks to be a fairly decent weekend as March arrives with the temperment of a lamb.
Early next week the 500mb jet reverts to a flow that looks more conducive to precipitation chances and a pattern thats more active. You can see a healthy short wave in the jet getting set to eject from the Texas Panhandle Tuesday with a nice tongue of moisture aimed at the Midwest.
Colder air is also trying to enter the system from the north. How it phases or interacts with the energy will be the key to how strong the storm becomes and where it tracks. The 12Z run of the EURO was pretty amped with the ensembles showing in green a potential 990mb surface low somewhere within the green oval. The best clustering favoring a track close to or a bit east of Chicago.
That would place my area in the cold sector of the storm with dynamic cooling changing rain to snow as the low pulls up into Illinois. Not knowing the amount of phasing that will occur makes for a difficult forecast at this distance. If the EURO solution holds this has the potentail to be system with a snowy NW side and a warm sector SE that contains showers and thunderstorms (see below). If the phasing is less, not much more than a grazing is likely.
Since this is at least 6 days away, I'm just putting it out there that the EURO is hyped on the potential. Whether that's the case in future runs remains to be seen. I'm certainly intrigued.
Something just as big "potentially" is shown at the end of the long range period when the EURO shows 3 days of highs in the 70s March 10th through the 12th. That's way out on the horizon but if the PNA goes as negative as indicated and the EPO says positive, the gun is loaded for such a warm-up.
While our short term forecast is rather mundane, the potential system early next week and the warm-up that's shown after that brings some welcome drama to the long range outlook.
Meantime, scattered light showers or sprinkles are possible early Wednesday, otherwise clouds will come and go and the day should end up with highs of 51-56 degrees from north to south. Happy hump day! Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
