DRIER DAYS HERE AGAIN...

Vacation is over for me, and it's time to get back to the business of weather. However, my time in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan at Carolyn's family cabin was well spent. No TV, no internet, no cell phones. I devoted my time to the lakes, the trees that surround them and the fish that flourish within them. I fished the days away under turquoise skies and good company, including loons and a couple of eagles. While I never checked it, I'm sure my heart beat was lower and time was a little slower. It's not for everybody, but it dang well works for me. The only thing missing was no weather charts. It bugs me not knowing what's going on, but I was getting better with it by the end of my stay. Sometimes, simple looks good on a man.

Now that I'm back on home soil, one of the things I'm seeing that I was not before I left, is a weather pattern that appears somewhat drier than any we've seen this summer. In fact, this whole year has been wet as evidenced by this graphic showing 2024 precipitation across Iowa. Much of my area in eastern Iowa has seen 30+ inches of precipitation with 4 more months to go.

Yearly departures for many of my counties are currently running 6–10 inches above what's normal.

For the upper Midwest, the year is currently the second wettest of 130 years of record.

Much of the nation from the Plains east, (aside from West Virginia, Ohio, and Florida) are having a wet year with above to well above normal precipitation.

The current pattern with NW flow brings limited moisture and precipitation chances through Saturday, along with more of these pleasant, comfortable low humidity days. Any serious heat is contained under the SW heat dome centered over the Panhandle of Texas.

By the weekend, the heat over the SW is expected to make a surge into the Midwest. Notice the center of the heat dome advancing towards the border of western Missouri, Sunday. That opens the door for what is likely to be at least a couple of 90 degree highs for many. Humidity dramatically increases as well, especially Sunday through Tuesday. Here in Dubuque, we've had only one 90 degree high all summer and that was more than 2 months ago when we hit 91 on June 17th. That could change.

Here's what the EURO is depicting for temperatures the next 10 days in the Quad Cities.

With the increase in water vapor, heat index values up around 100 are possible Sunday through Monday. Monday looks especially sultry on the EURO with heat index numbers of 100-105.

With the arrival of the steamy air Saturday afternoon and night, there is at least a chance of scattered showers and storms on the nose of the heat. Models are varied on rain prospects, but it's possible some of the stronger updrafts could drop localized downpours. We'll know more on that in a couple of days. Once the hot air is established, it appears we are close enough to the heat dome to keep the ring of fire to the north of my immediate area. Capping looks to be stout, meaning thunderstorm chances are low until Tuesday night at the earliest. There is large spread in model guidance after Tuesday regarding the placement of a front and the impacts that has on temperatures and storm chances the middle of next week. At least for now, forecast confidence is low on how that plays out.

Behind the cold front, another push of cool dry air is expected toward the end of next week. That again signals several more days of dry weather in its wake. At least on paper, the next 10–14 days show near to perhaps slightly below normal precipitation. Here's the rainfall departures on the EURO and GFS through the remainder of August. Much of the eastern half of the nation is well below normal on rainfall.

The EURO

The GFS

The Climate Prediction Center also shows the trend towards less rain in the long range pattern and also depicts the warmth next week and the cool down that follows in the 8-14 day period.

At least in the short term, the road we are headed down is a nice one. Look for pleasant, dry conditions today with light winds and highs in the low to mid 70s. It should be delicious. Roll weather, and thanks for allowing me a few days of rest and relaxation with my family and nature.