DIDN'T GET THE MESSAGE...
Okay, who did it? Who forgot to tell mother nature it's September? Wherever the mix-up occurred, it's time to correct the message! Meantime, a hot wind has been blowing since Saturday and in places like Waterloo, highs have hit the century mark two consecutive days. Labor Day's high of 100 was1 degree short of the daily record and the 7th time in the last 16 days the mercury has reached 97 or above. The 4th time in 13 days at 100!
By the way, the temperature of 100 in Waterloo was the first time the century mark has been reached in September since 1939! Additionally, the100 degree high Monday was just 2 degrees short of the all-time September record of 102 degrees set in 1922.
To give you an idea of the extent of the heat, here are the departures from normal Monday afternoon.
Up to now, the heat has come with minimal humidity and heat index values have stayed reasonable (below 100). Tuesday, the low level jet is finally in a position to increase moisture and dew points will inch into the upper 60s, maybe 70 in a few spots. With highs in the low to mid 90s the combination could force the index into the range of 95-100 (it should feel muggy). Passing clouds will also be a new addition to our skies.
The additional moisture also leads to some instability as shown in late day CAPE values near 2,000 j/kg.
Throw in some forcing in the form of a cold front Tuesday night and the makings are there for some desperately needed showers and storms. A big hurdle in this set-up is the negative feed-back from drought ridden soils. It's possible that low level evaporation may eat into the moisture available for rain. Additionally, the front is not expected to enter the west until late evening when instability is beginning to decrease. Since many of us are on our 22nd day without measurable rain, I think it's prudent not to be overly optimistic regarding rain chances. I think there will be showers and storms but they may be widely scattered and rain is likely to be spotty and on the light side. It may be that many areas miss out altogether. Right now the northern third of my area is most favored for anything that might be beneficial. Currently, here's what guidance is indicating for rain totals. I suspect the 3k NAM is well overdone and I'm very leery of its depiction.
The EURO
The GFS
The HRRR
The 3k NAM...very much an outlier.
With the passage of the front Wednesday the heat breaks and temperatures return to more seasonal levels in the upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity levels also decrease as the day wears on. By Thursday were are living the dream again with sunshine, dew points in the 50s, and highs in the mid to upper 70s...near perfect weather!
Incidentally, the long range pattern is indicating NW flow developing that should keep any serious heat far from the Midwest after Tuesday. Here's the 7 day temperature departures on the EURO for the period September 12th-19th. That looks quite pleasant.
Unfortunately, the pattern is not very favorable for moisture and storms. Thus, the 15 day precipitation departures continue to look unfavorable for much in the way of rainfall.
Well, there you have it. Another toasty day is on the way but the end is very much in sight. Hopefully we can end the heat with some of that rare commodity known as rain. Fingers crossed. Roll weather...TS
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