CUTTING IT THIN...

THE MARCH LION ROARS AGAIN

Another intense storm made a run on the Midwest Wednesday, featuring every conceivable type of weather. Here's a spectacular view of the classic mid-latitude cyclone spiraling through the Midwest.

As was expected, the storm had a cold sector where precipitation type was snow or rain changing to snow. There were two waves of it. The dominate snow band plastered eastern Nebraska, WC through NC Iowa and on through parts of SE Minnesota and Wisconsin. Lakota, Iowa (north of Algona), measured 14.5 inches with winds up to 50 mph. Much of the state on a line from Omaha to Algona had 6-10 inches, with locally higher totals.

Closer to the 500mb low, a secondary deformation band developed Wednesday evening while the first one was steadily weakening. Band number 2, (which is in the progress of departing as I write this), is ironically impacting SE Iowa and WC Illinois, an area that had severe thunderstorm warnings and highs that soared to 71 degrees a few hours earlier in Burlington. The satellite loop shows the strong circulation that produced some rotating low topped thunderstorms. By the time these really got going they were just east of my area in central Illinois where 65-70 mph winds were noted.

Some of you undoubtably saw some hail as well, Wednesday. Here in Dubuque, penny size hail covered the ground at my place Wednesday morning. Temperatures never got out of the 30s all day, and some of the hail was still visible at sunset. My deck has a nice drift. We also had some very sharp lightning which woke me up in the early hours of the morning, a testament to the intensity of the storm with temperatures barely above freezing. As of late evening, SPC indicates 9 tornado reports, and 68 others related to wind and hail, for a combined total Wednesday of 77.

You can see the temperature range at noon Wednesday that was causing the extreme weather. A 34 degree spread over the 150-mile distance from Dubuque (37 degrees) to Burlington (71 degrees).

Hours later, with us now firmly back in the cold sector, I'm waiting to walk out the secondary swath of snow, (which was anticipated) based on the hi-resolution CAMS Tuesday night showing it SE of a line from about Mt. Pleasant to the Quad Cities to approximately Sterling/Rock Falls. Here's what guidance was showing for snow totals Tuesday night. Notice how my counties NW of the Quad Cities were shown in the "black hole of snow" with the two snow bands split around them.

NEW GUIDANCE

The latest guidance Wednesday night is just a hair southeast, but sticks with the theme that 1–3 inches falls from near the Quad Cities southeast. It's looking like, the bulk of the accumulating snow just grazes or misses the Quad Cities, (a very close call). Higher amounts of 2–4 inches could fall near and around Galesburg and nearby parts of WC Illinois. What a change there, from severe t/storms and temperatures near 70 to plowable snow 8 hours later. Whatever happens, it's all over and done with by daybreak Thursday. Here's what the hi-resolution CAMS are indicating for new snow amounts by morning. Much of this would be on grassy and elevated surfaces.

The 3k NAM

The NAM

The HRRR

Elsewhere, just some scattered snow showers are possible overnight with little more than a dusting, if that.

That leaves us with a very windy, raw day Thursday, especially the morning. To start, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s.

Toss in the NW winds of up to 35 mph, and you've got yourself wind chills in the low to mid-teens. Hopefully, that's the last time we see them this cold the rest of winter. As for the day's highs, they will eventually get back into the range of 40-45. Expect a brisk but dry day!

After that, the model consensus is that two additional systems (far less significant) will dig across the Midwest. The first Friday may scare up a shower or two, but nothing of consequence. The second disturbance, which arrives Sunday, should have a chance to capture somewhat higher moisture levels and bring a more widespread chance of some light rain. Even so, amounts appear minimal. It is possible that some snow showers or flurries could cap it off, thanks to a decent pop of cold on its backside.

Temperatures look to bounce around a bit the next week with these various disturbances coming and going. Highs basically should remain in the 40s and 50s, near to below normal.

So there you have it, we've managed to make it through another potent late winter storm. Just a few more days before spring officially arrives. I'm ready. Roll weather....TS

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