COMPLEX WEEKEND STORM
KANSAS CITY, HERE SHE COMES...
Well, I just back from Kansas City, where my daughter Eden was accepted and granted a scholarship at the Kansas City Art institute this fall. It's a highly respected fine arts school with limited acceptance and enrollment of only 780. We visited the campus, community, and instructors to make sure it was the right opportunity for her. Mom, dad, and daughter all came away feeling very positive that this was the gateway to her future. The only negative is that it's a 6-hour drive. The phone is going to get a work out. Anyway, we are proud of her!
For me to take the time to travel to Kansas City, my lovely assistant Rebecca Kopelman had to step in for a couple of days. I want to thank her greatly for that. I also want to pass along the fact, that she has reached a point in her life where she no longer has the time to be my weekend replacement. For roughly 8 years, she has held that position, and I am going to miss her knowledge, positivity, and hard-working attitude. She always comes to work with a smile, and I'm continually amazed that someone can be as happy and energetic as her. RK, you are a loved and respected friend and co-worker. Thanks for everything you have done for me and those who follow this site. Best of luck in all your future endeavors. I know your light will always shine. Grandpa!
RESERVATIONS FOR 70+ PLEASE
Temperatures have been in a bit of a funk recently but are destined to warm considerably, but not until Friday. Thursday's weather will be impacted by clouds and perhaps a few showers or sprinkles, most numerous in the morning. A NW flow disturbance will be responsible for the passing clouds and what little precipitation can reach the ground. It appears the boundary it travels along will stay just SW of the area, and that holds highs in the upper 50s NE to low 60s in the SW. I don't expect much in the way of rain or sunshine Thursday.
Thursday night, with the front holding near the Missouri border, the possibility exists for some late night showers and storms in the SW half of my area, generally SW of the Quad Cities. The EURO and GFS are in agreement on this scenario. The 3k NAM and HRRR on the other hand show more of a push NE on the boundary and ignite the precipitation over my NE counties. That's a complete reversal of what the EURO and GFS show, so rain chances Thursday night are low confidence. The position of the boundary will be key to the outcome and something to watch in later model runs, but I think the south sees a better chance than the north. One thing is for sure, the low level jet should be strong enough to fire up some elevated storms north of where the front lays out. Here, a few hailers are possible. Below you can see the 3k NAM has its rain focused on the NE Thursday night.
The GFS is much further south and just catches my southern counties with the heavier rain.
Whatever happens, a warm front lifts north of the region Friday and a strong capping inversion sets up, killing any additional storms or rain prospects through Friday night. It also brings sunshine and gusty winds, allowing significant warming that sends highs well into the mid or upper 70s. If mixing is greater, upper 70s to low 80s would be attainable. That puts us closer to records which would be least likely to be achieved in the south.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 28th
DUBUQUE: 78, 1910
CEDAR RAPIDS 81, 1968
MOLINE 81, 1910
BURLINGTON 84, 1910
Here's what the EURO indicates for highs Friday afternoon
Saturday, there are some serious concerns with how high temperatures will get. The EURO keeps the warm front to the north and the better forcing to the west, resulting in another warm, dry day with highs again in the low to mid 70s. The GFS and the NAM, however, show the potential for a Lake Michigan enhanced back door front to sink south during the day. If it passes and winds switch to the E/NE, a quick drop in temperatures would occur. These lake enhanced fronts play havoc with models, and I'm concerned the EURO is not seeing the depth of the cold and it could bust badly. Any location north of the front would not only be blustery and chilly, it would have the chance of low clouds, drizzle, or a few light showers. Note the difference between the EURO and GFS regarding temperatures at 4:00pm Saturday. Instead of 71 in Dubuque as the EURO shows, the GFS is at 46. I am leaning towards a cooler but somewhat modified solution than what the EURO depicts, with an emphasis on my northern counties for the bulk of the cooling. Specifically, the area north of I-80 is most vulnerable to the colder outcome.
The EURO
The GFS
Later Saturday night, as low pressure develops along the boundary, a cold rain develops that could be accompanied by some scattered thunderstorms, primarily south of I-80. By mid-Sunday morning, the GFS has the rain mixing with freezing rain and perhaps some sleet or snowflakes.
The temperatures at 10:00am range from 32 in the north to 45 in the far south.
As the surface low progresses east, colder air will deepen and push southeast. At 6:00pm Sunday, snow or mixed snow and freezing rain is shown down to I-80. Stiff NE winds are also blowing 30-35mph.
Temperatures are in the 30s everywhere and on the verge of hitting the upper 20s up north.
Wind chills later Sunday evening are in the upper teens to mid 20s. Ouch!
The GFS does show some snow accumulations, especially north of HWY 30 Sunday.
The EURO does too, but it is slower developing the low and has far less precipitation Sunday, holding off until later Sunday night for any snow.
It's fair to assume, once this departs, next week gets off to a chilly start, and that's no April Fool.
In closing, I'm just going to say, this is likely to be a very challenging period of weather ahead. I see significant weather discrepancies, phasing issues, precipitation transitions from rain to snow, along with track and intensity concerns. I think I have the general idea, but I'm sure there are going to be some twists and turns going forward. Buckle up and stay tuned for updates. Meantime, roll weather...TS
