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COMING AND GOING...

terryswails1
3 days ago
4 min read

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COMING AND GOING...

The weather pattern we are currently in is one that is dominated by NW flow and fast moving disturbances short on moisture. Energy tops the 500mb ridge over the Rockies and then amplifies when it digs into the mean trough centered over the east. Thursday evening, the 500mb heights should look like this.

If you follow the heights (black lines), you can clearly see the northwesterly component that hinders precipitation production by shutting down the Gulf of Mexico, our primary source of moisture. Available water vapor (PWAT's) are shown to be around half of what's normal for April 11th.

That produces precipitable water vapor values of just 2 to 3/10ths of an inch. That's going to make it a struggle for any weather system to generate much in the way of rain.

Wednesday we had the first of 2 clipper like disturbances cross the region. It gallantly tried to generate rain, but what made it to the ground was meager in most spots.

Amounts were generally 1/10th of an inch or less, with the higher totals confined to my counties in NW Illinois.

The track of the system across my southern counties also produced a significant temperature spread of 20 degrees from north to south. Around 4:00pm readings in Dubuque were hovering around 48 with clouds and some passing showers. In the SW, (as expected), what showers fell were early, spotty and light, with some decent weather in the afternoon. While it was 48 on Dubuque, Keokuk at the same time was enjoying 69 degrees. Sometimes, you just have to be in the right spot.

A secondary disturbance follows Thursday, although this one tracks further west than the first. As a result, what rain it can scare up will likely be concentrated more on eastern Iowa. Most of what develops should hold off until afternoon, which means there are going to periods of filtered or even mixed sunshine through the first half of the day. That is likely to get highs into the low 50s NE, while to the SW in southeast Iowa low 60s are likely before any rain cooled air arrives later in the day.

Again, rainfall in most areas will be light where it ends up falling. However, my counties south and west of the Quad Cities may get just enough heating for a few late day storms to pop up. The EURO does indicate some small instability in the form of CAPE of 200-400 j/kg SW of a line from Cedar Rapids to Galesburg.

That would imply that a few thunderstorms could develop in that area and last into early evening. If indeed this is the case, some brief heavier rains are possible in SE Iowa. Some of the strongest updrafts would be capable of isolated pockets of 1/4"+ rains over my western counties in Iowa. However, I want to stress amounts of this magnitude are low confidence and most locations will have far less with little if any rain falling NE of the Quad Cities. In fact, new guidance shows even less in the way of rain falling even in eastern Iowa, meaning much of Thursday will be dry and even where rain develops, it should be brief and light. The further west you go onto eastern Iowa, the better the chances of seeing some afternoon showers, here's what models are suggesting for rainfall totals Thursday afternoon and evening.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

The HRRR

Following the disturbance, dry weather returns for Friday. However, some low level moisture may linger that fosters clouds and hinders warming. For now, highs of 55-60 from north to south looks reasonable.

THE WEEKEND

Both Saturday and Sunday appear dry, but the amount of sunshine is still a bit in question for Saturday, which again dictates how warm temperatures get. I would think at least a couple degrees higher for a range of 58-63. Sunday, with the approach of the next cold front, a healthy southerly flow should bump temperatures into the 69-74 category, coolest in the NE. It does look breezy, with gusts up to 30.

ANOTHER STEP BACK

The warming trend does not last long, as another frisky cold front arrives Sunday night. With minimal moisture, it should be a dry passage, but one can't rule out a few brief showers in the SE late Sunday night or early Monday. The primary impact looks to be windy and colder weather early next week, with falling temperatures Monday through the 50s. Tuesday should be the coldest, with highs possibly remaining in the 40s across the north. The GFS has this for highs Tuesday afternoon.