COLD SET TO PILE ON...
CLOSER TO MY SUPPORT GOAL
MY FUND RAISER CONTINUES....
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A LITTLE SNOW, PLENTY OF COLD...
The initial wave of warm advection snows of Friday have exited thanks to the passing of a strong layer of lift on the nose of stout low level jet. Much of the area from about HWY 30 north picked up an inch of snow, with some 2" plus amounts noted along and north of HWY 20. Further south, amounts were generally 1/2 an inch or less. About what was expected.
Attention now turns to the second wave of energy and any additional snow it produces Saturday. After sampling models that were all over the place the last 24–48 hours, we are finally seeing better consistency in guidance. That is leading to higher confidence in the final phase of the storm. It also means addition snow totals will be minimal at best.
All along, the EURO has not been excited about the prospects for significant snows Saturday. Friday morning it showed this for amounts this weekend, including what fell Friday. That's minimal and manageable.
The GFS was far more generous (and concerning) with amounts that looked like this for the very same period. Several hi-resolution models were also indicating similar amounts, up to 8 inches in the north, rather ominous.
Well, As I mentioned in Thursday night's post, the EURO with its lower snow totals was the odd man out. I also went on to say that if the "KING" (a term given to the EURO for its supremacy) was not on board a day before the event, that smells very fishy. Tread carefully, and I did, remaining neutral until I was sure one way or the other.
The latest EURO Friday night has remained consistent, showing amounts like this Saturday. One slight revision is snow amounts are an inch or so higher in a band from Washington, Iowa to the Quad Cities and on to Sterling/Rock Falls.
That signifies the development of a deformation band northwest of a deepening cyclone in far southern Illinois. However, before it really blossoms, the storm is too far east for the band to generate anything but light snow. Thus, there should be enough forcing for a period of light snow of an inch or so in that swath outlined cutting through the Quad Cities. You can see the potential band in the green colors cutting across the Quad Cities.
Elsewhere, cold air aloft will bleed in around the storms' backside, generating snow showers or flurries from time to time. Amount should be minimal, an inch or less. The bottom line is the KING wins again and additional snow totals Saturday will only be around an inch at the worst. Again, here's what models are suggesting for additional snow Friday night into Sunday.
The EURO
The GFS, finally coming around to the EURO
The 10K GEM
Sunday, as the storm deepens over the eastern Great Lakes, a tight pressure gradient results that produces stiff NW winds of 20-25 mph. Strong cold air advection due to an Arctic intrusion generates some wrap around snow showers that leave no more than a dusting. Sunday night the Arctic air makes a charge and where snow cover exists, especially 5 inches or more, temperatures will take a deep dive. Lows of 5 to 10 below will be possible in EC Iowa and NW Illinois. Wind chills of 10-20 below look likely. A cold weather advisory is quite possible.
Monday, a clipper like snow is indicated that might graze the SW half of my area, another fluffy snow. There won't be much in the way of moisture, but high snow ratios could squeeze out some 1-2" amounts. Here are some early projections of snow potential Monday in the south.
The EURO
The GFS
The 12K NAM
Behind the clipper, a reinforcing shot of Arctic air arrives for the first half of the coming week. Sub-zero lows are likely and if we get a night with strong radiational cooling, the snow cover could yield lows near 20 below with wind chills worse than that.
It does appear that after Monday's clipper, the pattern is far less energetic and a period of cold but dry weather is on the table mid to late week. Less snow, worse cold. That's called piling on. A breather just the same. That's what I have for now. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
