CLIPPED BY A CLIPPER...

TWO NIGHTS FOR THE PRICE OF ONE...REALLY

Hey everybody, February is the love month and boy do we have a "lovely" deal just for you at my new Airbnb, The Little White Church of Galena. If you book one night, the second one is on "us." totally free. As we celebrate our Grand Opening Month, it is a $500 value. The offer has been such a hit we are extending it into the spring. Come check out the splendor of the church which includes three bedrooms and three full bathrooms. Each bedroom has its own television and ceiling fan. The master suite has an ensuite, private deck and king sized bed. Plus a fireplace, Dish TV and Sirius XM with a great sound system. It's loaded.

Just minutes away from Galena, we have a special spot for you and your sweetheart. With all the space, you can spilt the church with one or two other couples making it a tremendous deal. It is a first come, first serve proposition as far as available dates are concerned. It truly is a religious experience! Call carolyn at 563 676 3320 or you can email at carolynswettstone@yahoo.com to secure a date or get more details. Here is a link with pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb

A WINTRY WEEKEND AHEAD

As a guy who loves snow, I am perpetually astounded at how hard it is for eastern Iowa to get into the line of sight of a decent snowfall. I'm just as amazed at how consistently the area just to the NW ends up being the sweet spot, the hallowed ground where snowstorms go to unload. If you live anywhere near a line from Mason City, Iowa to Rochester, Minnesota you are typically money when it comes to recieving the motherload of any major storm. It's just freaky how often that area ends up in the red zone while I bitterly watch it unfold. So close, yet so far!

SO WHERE IS SATURDAY'S SNOW HEADED?

Well, this next snow system Saturday is not a classic example of my angst but it is another case of the rich getting richer with the snow moving progressively further north of where it was shown 2-3 days ago. At that time, much of my area looked to be in line for a healthy little snow. But, day by day the event has shifted north and now guidance indicates little in the way of snow south of I-80 with the heaviest band situated near HWY 20. Actually, that idea has changed little since yesterday.

SOME FINE TUNING TO DO.

It is fair to say there has been a slight northward trend on the snow band but at least models are honing in on a consistent solution now with the eventual track and snow amounts. That was not the case early Friday when the hi-resolution models such as the 3k NAM and HRRR had the heavy snow swath north of HWY 20 and totals of an inch or less for the majority of my area. This was in contrast to the deterministic runs of the EURO, GFS, and Canadian which have held their ground keeping the 2 inch line near I-80 with 4-6 inch amounts closer to HWY 20. New runs of the HRRR and NAM are now more in line with the GFS and EURO.

My concern is the very sharp cut-off line to the heavier snows. The hi-res guidance keeps that closer to HWY 30 and delivers totals near I-80 of an inch or less. That area between HWY 30 and I-80 is low confidence and depending on what model you use could vary by and inch or two.

We may not have the situation fully resolved until early Saturday but I'm in the camp of 1-2 inches near I-80, 2-4 closer to HWY 30 and 5-6 around HWY 20. That is in close keeping with what the NWS shows in their forecast and advisories. This is the official NWS snow forecast as of Friday night which is likely to be altered slightly by daybreak. Notice the south with an inch of less.

Here's the NWS winter weather advisory for Saturday in my northern counties along with another view of expected snow totals with the greatest amount of uncertainty highlighted.

Here is a sampling of what models are suggesting for snow totals through Saturday night. Notice how the hi-res 3k NAM and HRRR keep the southern extent of the snow closer to HWY 30.

The EURO

The GFS

The GEM

The HRRR

The 3k NAM

The 12K NAM

As for timing, snow in the north should get going in my western counties by 8:00am and should be across the Mississippi and into my northern Illinois counties around 10:00am. It should be over from west to east by late evening Saturday.

Temperatures will range quite a bit from 20 north to the mid 20s near I-80, and the mid to perhaps upper 30s near and south of HWY 34 in far SE Iowa.

NE winds will increase Saturday night reaching 25 (maybe 30 mph) on gusts. This will cause some blowing and drifting snow especially in the open country. WIth temperatures plunging into the single digits northwest to the teens elsewhere, wind chills on the order of 30 below north to 10 below south are expected by daybreak Sunday.

Temperatures Sunday won't go up much as strong cold air advection sweeps the region. In the deeper snow cover of the north highs may hold around 7-9 degrees with low to mid teens further south. By Monday morning sub-zero lows are expected in the north with single digits south. Tuesday morning looks bitter with the EURO indicating lows of 10 to 15 below from I-80 north.

The Canadian is even colder with lows -10 to -20. I could see some local spots in the north 15 to 20 below but that 10 below south is heavily dependant on snow cover which I think is overdone on the Canadian.

The bottom line is, once we get done with the snow Saturday night, next week looks cold but dry with no apparent weather makers. Have a fine weekend wherever you are and roll weather...TS