CHAOS AT CRUNCH TIME
A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS....
Hi everyone, I realize times are tough, and we are all feeling the pinch of inflation. That's the primary reason why this is a no pay site. However, I really could use your help to raise funds for the operational costs and time I invest in this site. Donations have been significantly down this year and to reach my goal of breaking even, I have a long way to go. Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. That way, we can keep things rolling as they have for more than 12 years. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. So again, if you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation to support TSwails today. Thanks for your time and loyalty, TS
CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS...
Sunday is a day of rest, but not for those of us who are tracking what could be the largest single snow of the winter so far. In fact, Wednesday's system has the potential to produce more snow in some locations than has fallen all winter long. That sounds ominous, but when you consider the majority of my area has had only 2–6 inches, it won't take a huge amount of snow to do it. Below you can see there are even places in SW and SC Iowa that have not had any accumulating snow this winter. NONE!. In my area, less than 1/2 inch has fallen north of Burlington. The most anywhere in the state is 8 inches.
Dubuque reports 3.3 inches and recently completed its driest January on record. Now we are 9 days into February and still no measurable rain or snow has been measured in Dubuque. Going back to January 1st (40 days), only .10 of an inch has been totaled, .08" of that fell in one day. That's ridiculous. I sneer at that development.
Well, the exciting news is that there is a change in the pattern that has the potential to bring several chances of snow over the next week. Below, you can see the mammoth 500mb trough that takes aim on the Midwest the middle of the week. That will finally toss some moisture into the Midwest, allowing snow to overspread the region Wednesday.
Even at this early stage, the GFS indicates a 90-100 percent chance of at least an inch of snow areawide.
Odds of 6 or more inches of snow on the EURO between now and the 24th, are 70-80 percent. You don't have to be a statistician to see that snow will be a visitor in coming days.
DISAPPOINTING RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
Since my last post, I have noticed a jog southeast on the Wednesday storm. These wobbles are typical, but I am concerned it's the start of a trend. A shift SE implies the storm is bucking high pressure and its cold air over the upper Midwest. That limits some of the moisture that would otherwise go into snow production. I've mentioned in earlier posts that the depth of the cold was the only thing that could keep us from achieving the high-end amounts. The latest runs are the first time totals have decreased, and it's due to this issue. We are just getting into data that is better sampled off the west coast, so it remains to be seen if we can make up the ground we lost. Even if we don't, as long as we do not continue to see more movement southeast in further runs, we are in for several inches of plowable snow. Here's the EURO's latest surface depiction of Wednesdays event.
Compare that to what was shown 2 runs and 12 hours earlier below. The darker shades of blue have retreated south from the NE corner of Iowa to the southeast of Dubuque. We do not want that sinking any further SE. If so, it could be very problematic, what I would call a bitter pill.
Anyway, model runs the next 24 hours will be important as they should start to cluster on a singular, more consistent track and have already moved in that direction. That will tell the tale of how this story ends, and right now it does not appear to be the high-end conclusion depicted on model's Saturday morning that I was hoping for.
What you are looking at now are the snowfall forecasts of the 0Z deterministic runs of the EURO and GFS. The Kuchera method of snow prediction is being used because it allows for colder temperatures that will produce snow ratios greater than 10:1. Don't buy any amounts shown. Remember, it's still too early to latch onto specific totals, and the numbers continue to greatly fluctuate. On this run alone, amounts are 2–3 inches higher across the board on the EURO compared to the GFS. The goal is to tighten up the track, totals, and find consistency going forward, and that will happen in the next 24-36 hours. Here's what models are suggesting for the time being.
The GFS
The EURO
If there is one bit of consoling news for snow lovers, it's that the second system for next Saturday came in hot on the GFS and EURO, showing moderate to heavy snow across my area. The pattern is ripe for another snowmaker, maybe two. The question is where will it end up. It seems everywhere but here. I guess we regroup and hope for improved results tomorrow. Weather is fun...most times! Roll weather and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
